NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 1/11/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jack Campbell ($7,500): The Edmonton Oilers are -260 road favorites tonight against the Anaheim Ducks in a game where they really need to get back on track. The Oilers have lost four of their last five games, and this is simply not a team they should be losing to. While Campbell has been inconsistent in net this season, the Oilers' offense should be able to power him to a win.
This is because the Ducks are allowing 3.44 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league. We also see the Ducks scoring 1.83 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. If there's ever a time to pick up a win, it's tonight.
Connor McDavid ($10,600): We go from the Oilers' net to the Oilers' top line with McDavid. As noted above, the Ducks allow a league-worst 3.44 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting McDavid in a spot for a fantasy ceiling type of game. He has 15 NHL points, 31 shots on goal, and 8 blocked shots over his last 10 games -- a level of production not many players on this small four-game slate can match.
Even with a player like McDavid, the Oilers' offense is actually underproducing goals right now. They are scoring 2.42 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 22nd in the league. If we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be producing 2.71 goals in that condition, which would put them at 14th in the league. It's not a massive jump in production, but if they are going to reach that mark, McDavid is certainly going to be involved.
Alex Ovechkin ($9,900): When a goal-scorer like Ovechkin has gone multiple games without a goal -- and now gets to face a weak defense -- I love it as a bounce-back spot. Ovi has taken nine shots in this pair of games without a goal, so take note. The Washington Capitals are carrying a 3.37 implied goal total tonight and set to take on the Philadelphia Flyers.
This season, the Flyers are allowing 60.34 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-worst in the league. They are also allowing fewer goals (2.48) than they should be when we take a peek at their (2.76) expected goals against (xGA). They are overperforming on defense and now face the greatest goal-scorer in the history of the NHL, who is looking to break a bit of a drought.
Gabriel Vilardi ($5,600): The Los Angeles Kings have a 3.71 implied goal total tonight against the San Jose Sharks, which should make them viable in all formats. Giving up a lot of shot attempts -- and goals -- is bad. The Sharks are doing both of those things, and this means we should be stacking against them every night.
Vilardi is on the third forward line (but the first power-play unit) for the Kings and comes in with 9 NHL points, 20 shots on goal, and 8 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He's posted really solid point-per-dollar production in this clear plus matchup against the Sharks.
Pierre Engvall ($4,200): With Auston Matthews listed as out tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs have mixed up their forward lines a bit. We now see Engvall on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for the Leafs, who come in with a 3.34 implied goal total tonight. We've actually seen decent production from Engvall prior to this with 6 NHL points and 21 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
This slight change in his role could help him find a bit more consistency going forward.