NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 12/27/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Pyotr Kochetkov ($8,500): The Carolina Hurricanes are massive -450 home favorites against the Chicago Blackhawks, which should make Kochetkov one of the safest options on the slate. Kochetkov has been an absolute rock in net for the Canes this season, boasting a .928 save percentage while allowing only 1.86 goals per game.
This shouldn't be a surprise since the Canes are an elite defensive team overall, allowing 1.90 Goals Per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best clip in the league. We should see that level of production continue tonight since the Blackhawks are a mess on offense this season, scoring a league-worst 1.65 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Kochetkov should cruise to a victory.
Connor McDavid ($10,400): The Edmonton Oilers have been a bit up and down as of late and will look to get back on track versus the Calgary Flames, giving us another installment of the Battle of Alberta. I'm not a big fan of looking at career-long stats for individual matchups, but McDavid has owned the Flames -- there's no other way to put it.
In 36 career games against Calgary, McDavid has 51 NHL points and 120 shots on goal. It's a remarkable level of production, and it's the type of upside you want in your lineups. The Oilers have a 3.06 implied total tonight in a game that features a 6.5-goal over/under, which should give McDavid plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points.
He has 19 NHL points, 37 shots on goal, and 8 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling of fantasy points.
Martin Necas ($7,800): With a 3.93 implied goal total, the Hurricanes top the slate and should be a priority for both cash games and tournaments. The Canes come in with a 66.54 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), which is the best in the league, while the Blackhawks have a 62.18 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), which is third-worst. It's a matchup of two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum, and it's heavily tilted in favor of the Canes.
Necas has posted 7 NHL points and 39 shots on goal across his last 10 games, and he is skating on the first forward line and the first power-play unit.
The Canes' offense is good, but it's actually underproducing right now. They are scoring 2.61 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 15th in the league. However, if we look at their Expected Goals Scored (xGF), they should be scoring 3.04 Goals, which would be the third-most. They are going to have an offensive breakout soon, and a soft matchup against Chicago could start it.
Conor Garland ($5,300): The Vancouver Canucks have a 3.42 implied goal total tonight and could be in for a high-scoring game against the San Jose Sharks. Both teams are in the top half of the league for the most Goals scored and also in the bottom five of the league for the most Goals allowed, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. If a crazy back-and-forth scoring game is on tap, we want to find some fantasy options.
Garland is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for the Canucks, which has allowed him to rack up 6 NHL points, 26 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
Mikael Backlund ($5,700): With a 6.5 over/under, the Flames and Oilers are set for a high-scoring game, which is the norm when these two teams meet up. The Oilers had a strong start to the season, but their defense has taken a sharp downward turn as of late and is now allowing 2.72 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-worst in the league.
The Flames are rocking the third-highest (3.44) implied total on the slate, and they should be a great team to target for tournaments. Backlund's salary is easy to jam in, and he is on the third forward line and the second power-play unit. He's generated 5 NHL points and 33 shots on goal over his last 10 games.