NHL Betting Guide: Friday 12/16/22
From a unit perspective, we've basically broken even all four days to start this week.
Today, we've got one game with correlating wagers to head out on a high note.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild
Blackhawks +1.5 (+124) - 2 Stars
Over 6.0 (-112) - 3 Stars
If you look at the skaters in this one, it seems like a mismatch. But there's one in goal, too.
The Wild are one of the better defensive teams in hockey, posting the fifth-fewest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes (2.73). They're a modest 18th in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 (3.05). They should be an under machine, yet more games for them have fallen over (15) than under (14). What gives?
It's Marc-Andre Fleury. The veteran netminder has struggled this season for Minnesota just as he did last year in Chicago. Outside of a revenge-game rebirth, Fleury's -6.57 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) are once again a harrowing prospect for under bettors.
Expect the Blackhawks to keep pace here. Kevin Lankinen has actually performed well in goal (4.40 GSAx), and Fleury's struggles might create an opening for a Chicago offense that's otherwise struggled to score (2.45 xGF).
Overall, our model here expects this game to see at least six goals 66.9% of the time against these 52.7% implied odds. That's a three-star wager even when factoring in a push.
It also thinks the Hawks cover a one-goal margin 50.6% of the time here against these 44.6% implied odds.
