NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 12/15/22
Our model is like a box of chocolates. Regardless of game volume or matchups, you never know what you'll get.
Here's what we shouldn't do: force it. Despite 12 games today, it's only recommending two multi-unit plays on even-money lines.
One of them seems like a trap, so I'm dropping to my favorite one-star line of the day with the other.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Capitals ML (-102) - 1 Star
This is a "Pros vs. Joes" split of action, and our data likes the sharp side as well.
The Stars are traveling to face the Capitals in this one. With the better record (and as the better team all year), Dallas is getting 57% of the bets in this one. However, a whopping 62% of the money is on Washington to win at home.
Dallas is due for regression. At this time, they're scoring 3.61 goals per 60 minutes, but their expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes is just 3.35. They're also allowing just 2.69 goals per 60, but their expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes is 3.04.
As a result, I think we can back the red-hot Capitals in this one. Alex Ovechkin just scored his 800th career goal, and they've won five straight.
Even with backup netminder Charlie Lindgren factored into the projection, our model believes the Caps win this game 53.5% of the time against these 50.2% implied odds. If the public shifts these odds toward Dallas any further, the model should rate this with multiple stars.
Under 6.0 (-108) - 3 Stars
This is my favorite line of the day, though. Targeting unders with an elite goaltender facing a bad offense is a great strategy.
That's precisely what we have here. On the "elite goaltending" side, we have Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck. He's second in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (14.96) behind only Ilya Sorokin6vfvfvfv. As a former Vezina Trophy winner, I'm expecting his high level of play to last.
On the "bad offense" side, we have Nashville. They've scored the fourth-fewest goals per 60 minutes (2.48) in the NHL, and though they're due for some regression towards 3.06 xGF per 60 minutes, they're still comfortably a bottom-half offense.
Plus, Juuse Saros (6.03 GSAx) can hold his own on the other end for the Preds, and the Jets (3.19 xGF per 60) aren't some offensive juggernauts.
Our model sees six goals or fewer in this tilt a sizable 66.2% of the time. While that does factor in a push, this is easily the best bet of the day, per the model, against these 52.3% implied odds.