NHL Betting Guide: Monday 12/5/22
Monday's slate is a bit tricky. No favorite sits below a -165 moneyline, so we're creatively betting totals or pucklines in some lopsided affairs.
Which ones stand out?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins
Under 6.0 (-106) -2 Stars
Two of the best defensive hockey teams in the land meet tonight in Boston, so we can take this average total at near-even money.
The Bruins have allowed the second-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes in the NHL so far (2.55), and the visiting Vegas Golden Knights have allowed the sixth-fewest (2.72). That's been the stronger side for both clubs, with Boston just 7th in expected goals scored per 60 (3.43 xGF), and Vegas is 12th (3.23).
Plus, the preseason uncertainty in goal for both teams has been answered. Surprisingly, Linus Ullmark is one of just five goalies in the NHL holding at least 10 goals saved above expectation (10.35 GSAx). For the Knights, Logan Thompson is still a respectable 18th in that category (4.77).
With two defense-first clubs, our model thinks there are six goals or fewer 64.0% of the time in this one. While that does also account for a push, against these 51.5% implied odds, this is still numberFire's only multi-unit recommendation of the day.
Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers +1.5 (-152) - 1 Star
Of the one-star recommendations, I can fairly easily get behind this one.
The Avalanche have stumbled out of the blocks far more than their 13-8 record implies. Amazingly, Colorado has a sub-50.0% expected-goals-for rate (49.7% xGF), but to this point, they've been fortunate to post a 54.5% actual goals-for percentage given their performance in terms of shots and chances.
All of a sudden, this matchup with Philadelphia isn't as lopsided. The Flyers are at home, and while they're a good bit behind Colorado in xGF% (41.6%), the difference might be in net. Carter Hart has been sensational, posting the third-best GSAx (13.29) in hockey. While Alexandar Georgiev (5.36 GSAx) has been good, he's still a good margin behind.
In what figures to be a lower-scoring affair, I love taking the one-goal cushion with the home squad. Our model believes this bet wins out 60.1% of the time against these 60.0% implied odds, but I, personally, feel stronger conviction than that.
On a day where we're not seeing a ton of value across the board, this side of the puckline is receiving just 23% of bets and 15% of the money, but this line jumped from -144 to -152 just this morning. That's a good sign.
