NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/30/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Samsonov ($6,500): The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to stay hot and come in as big -285 home favorites against the San Jose Sharks. The Leafs are winners of four straight and will turn to Samsonov in net tonight, who comes in with a couple of interesting notes. First off, he is $6,500, which is the absolute minimum salary for a goalie, making him very appealing given the heavy moneyline in favor of the Leafs.
The other note is that this will be his first start since November 5th, as he has been out with a knee injury. Goalies are tough to judge in their first game back from an injury, but his salary is very enticing, especially considering it's a very small four-game slate, and we need as much value as we can find.
The Sharks don't pose too much of a threat on offense. They come in with a 54.78 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), which is the 11th lowest in the league. This is a pretty decent landing spot for Samsonov coming off an injury while also offering plenty of value.
Connor McDavid ($10,400): With a 3.76 implied goal total, you don't want to be fading the Edmonton Oilers and McDavid tonight. This is an unbelievably favorable matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks for McDavid, and with his multi-point potential, he is a near must-roster tonight.
Chicago comes in as one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 2.96 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the sixth-worst in the league, and a 62.9 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), which is the second-worst in the league.
McDavid comes in with 14 NHL points and 40 shots on goal in his last 10 games, a surprise to no one. Don't get cute -- pay up for McDavid.
Tage Thompson ($10,000): Thompson is having an elite year for the Sabres, sitting in the league's top 10 for points (28) and top five for goals (14). The top-line center for the Buffalo Sabres is doing it all and also comes in averaging 4.5 shots on goal per game. That type of shot volume gives him a strong floor of points that he can build on every night.
We should see that on full display tonight against the Detroit Red Wings, who have the ninth-worst (59.59) Corsi Against this season, putting Thompson in a juicy matchup. The Sabres' offense is cookin' right now and is producing 2.90 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the sixth-best in the league. Thompson is another clear top option tonight and carries multi-point upside.
Rasmus Sandin ($3,900): The Maple Leafs have a number of injuries among their defensemen, and it puts Sandin in a spot to see time on the first power-play unit. He is under $4,000, and if the time on the first power-play unit sticks, that means he gets you exposure to Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. All of them are over $7,500.
This is, arguably, the most skilled power-play unit in the league, and now you get a player on that same unit for half the salary. Sandin's ability to exceed point-per-dollar value is massive if he simply falls into a few shots or an assist tonight.
Filip Chytil ($4,400): The New York Rangers have a 3.38 implied goal total and are in a good spot to get their offense going against the Ottawa Senators. To this point in the season, the Senators are allowing 3.3 goals per game, which essentially puts anyone they face in a good matchup. We also see the Senators in the bottom half of the league in Corsi Against, making them a clear target tonight.
Chytil is the center on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for the Rangers, coming in with 8 NHL points, 13 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots in his last 10 games.