NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/23/22
With no games scheduled on Thursday for Thanksgiving, the NHL has loaded up a massive 15-game slate tonight.
There really wasn't as much value as I'd have expected with nearly the whole league in action, but we still have a few sharp lines that stood out right away.
Let's feast tonight on the ice -- and tomorrow at the table.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings
Under 6.0 (-102) - 2 Stars
I love lines like these; 75% of the money and 89% of bets are on the over, and this number has moved in the opposite direction. Both of these teams have claims to defensive proficiency, so don't rule out this low total.
The host Red Wings have allowed the seventh-fewest expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes (2.71). Ville Husso has been a positive addition to their net this season, too. Husso has posted 1.69 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this year, which is a modest 27th in the league.
However, Nashville should have the edge in goal. Juuse Saros started the season on Vezina lists, and he's 12th in GSAx (4.63). The concern for the under is he's done that in some muddy conditions; the Preds have ceded the sixth-most expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (3.46).
Our model gives the under a 51.9% chance to win outright, and it adds another 10.6% chance that it pushes at 6.0 goals. That's a no-brainer bet against these 50.2% implied odds.
Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders
Islanders ML (-110) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
These two quality clubs should produce the best game of Wednesday.
Obviously, the Oilers can score at any time when Connor McDavid is in the lineup, and they're 9th in xGF per 60 minutes (3.31). The Islanders aren't far behind (3.16).
Where these two teams become Stanley Cup contenders is in goal. To no surprise, Ilya Sorokin has followed up his year as a Vezina finalist with another elite campaign. He's second in GSAx (13.88) in the league.
However, the surprise has been Stuart Skinner. We've always wondered what Edmonton would look like with great goaltending, and Skinner's provided that as he's sixth in GSAx (6.45).
With two elite goalies facing off, I'll absolutely turn to the under in this spot, and our model is giving it a 60.3% chance to hit. However, Sorokin's also the one I trust more long-term, so I'll back the Isles at home, and our model supports me there, projecting a 57.9% chance New York prevails.
Against 52.5% implied odds for each wager, I have to bet both.
Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights
Under 6.5 (-115) - 3 Stars
This is our model's favorite bet of the night, but it's my least favorite of these three. Hey, though, we're teammates, and I don't want to discriminate just because it's a computer.
I could see the Vegas Golden Knights dominating this matchup as they've done plenty of times this season. Vegas is fourth in xGF percentage (56.5%), and they've largely dominated with defense. The Knights have allowed the third-fewest xGA per 60 (2.55), and Logan Thompson has been a pleasant surprise in goal (2.99 GSAx).
My lone concern for the under in this spot is Ottawa's defense and goaltending. The Sens have allowed the seventh-most xGA per 60 (3.43), and Anton Forsberg has been much better than he was last year (0.89 GSAx), but he's not cracking any Vezina lists by any means.
Still, it's easy to see why our model likes this bet. Of the 10 most similar games to this one, per our historical database, 7 fell short of a 6.5-goal total.
Our algorithm is assigning a 62.9% chance the under hits against these 53.5% implied odds, and a vast majority of bets and cash are on the over. I'm trusting my partner in this space.
