NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 11/10/22
What a heartbreaker to avoid a 2-0 day yesterday. Who knows how the nightcap changes if Trevor Zegras' magical goal had counted?
We still move forward to Thursday's juicy 10-game slate. The Hurricanes play, so you know what to do.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes
Under 7.0 (-144) - 3 Stars
Even on a back-to-back, we're locking in a Carolina under.
It's the gift that keeps on giving. Yesterday's 7.0-goal total in the Canes' game was met with just three total tallies. Of Carolina's 13 games, 8 have fallen short of the total -- and some have had much lower totals than this. They're still the fifth-best team in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.61) despite the 3-0 loss on Wednesday.
Having played yesterday, the Canes will turn to Antti Raanta. That's not necessarily a bad thing; his goals saved above expectation (1.06 GSAx) actually trumps starter Frederik Andersen's mark (-2.72).
Edmonton is a high-powered offense, but they're just seventh in expected goals per 60 (3.47). Their star power doesn't quite match the projection, and they're likely turning to Stuart Skinner tonight. Skinner's been a surprise star this season, posting the sixth-best GSAx (5.76) in hockey.
Overall, our model believes this bet wins outright 55.0% of the time. That means if you can find an alternate 6.5-goal total at plus-money, do it. However, at this 7.0 line, we are expecting a push another 21.1% of the time. The 76.1% chance to at least get your money back is well worth even these 59.0% implied odds.
Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins
Flames +1.5 (-170) - 3 Stars
This fun clash could be a Stanley Cup Finals preview, and this juice is low enough to back the Flames to stay within a tally.
The preseason evaluation on these teams had Calgary (103.5-point total) above Boston (96.5), but the B's have taken a flamethrower to preseason expectations. I say this with love for a good team; they're too hot right now.
With a 63.1% goals-for percentage (GF%), they've been the most dominant team in the NHL. However, their expected GF% is just 57.1%, which is fourth-best in the league. They're a great team, but they're due to cool off at any moment.
The Flames are 10th in xGF% (53.4%), so they're a worthy adversary to start the Bruins' regression tonight.
I'll sprinkle the +142 moneyline, too, but our model believes the best bet is backing the spread. It's giving Calgary a 70.8% chance to cover versus these 60.0% implied odds. It does believe they win outright 46.8% of the time, though, so a Flames moneyline bet is a two-star wager.
Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings
Blackhawks +1.5 (-108) - 2 Stars
It wouldn't be a full slate if I wasn't backing some awful team on an even-money puckline.
If you need the inspiration to take Chicago's spread in Los Angeles tonight, they did beat the Kings outright in Chicago last week. Even changing venues and with both teams rested, I think we can run it back reasonably expecting a one-goal game.
Most had the Blackhawks tagged as the NHL's worst squad, but they've posted just the fifth-worst xGF% (42.8%) so far. They're just normal bad. I know the Kings are better; they're 11th in xGF% (52.8%) despite a negative goal differential so far.
That dynamic, though, is why I'm fine taking a spread. Both Petr Mrazek (-4.00 GSAx) and Jonathan Quick (-2.72 GSAx) have stunk this year. Chicago is another rough Quick outing from cashing this outright.
However, with this game in Los Angeles and with Mrazek (and not their two better youngsters?) in goal, I'll avoid the Blackhawks' moneyline in this spot. Our model is giving the Hawks a 60.7% chance to cover this spread, which is a no-brainer bet against these 52.3% implied odds.
