NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/8/22
All three United States domestic leagues (the NFL, MLB, and NBA) are off Tuesday, which is Election Day locally. Here's yet another reminder to vote if you haven't already.
However, with no elections in Canada (and probably no foresight from the league office), we're still seeing a ton of activity in the NHL.
Let's hope to shift from the ballot box on Tuesday afternoon to the proverbial cash counter on Tuesday night.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under 6.0 (-112) - 3 Stars
For today's totals, we're actually fading the offenses of two teams that played yesterday. Tired legs in the NHL can make all the difference late.
I'd normally be concerned about a backup goalie for the unrested squad in this space, but the Islanders have the best backup in the league in former Vezina finalist Semyon Varlamov. He's picked up a modest 0.47 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in four appearances thus far.
At home, Igor Shesterkin will be a tough test to crack for the Isles. Shesterkin's followed his red-hot playoff run with the ninth-best GSAx (5.06) in the NHL so far.
This is a brutal spot for the Islanders after playing yesterday. Rightfully, our model is giving the rested Rangers a 62.1% chance to win the game, but it's also assigning a 57.8% chance this game stays at or below six goals. The under is a better wager, holding a three-unit recommendation.
Under 7.0 (-122) - 2 Stars
I'd prefer a plus-money alternate total here of 6.5 goals if you can get it. The Oilers' legs have to be tired after last night's nine-goal circus, and they've got to face Andrei Vasilevskiy today. It seemed like Vasilevskiy got off to a slow start, but he is already up to 14th in GSAx (4.46).
Now, is there a bit of concern Tampa Bay does some damage at home? Absolutely. The Oilers are turning to Jack Campbell (-6.04 GSAx), and they sport the sixth-most expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (3.50 xGA) in hockey.
I still think Tampa wins in a rout short of this number, and so does our model. It's assigning a 72.0% chance this one sees seven goals or fewer, and in the 20 most similar games to this one in our database, 12 stayed at or below seven tallies.
Canucks ML (+104) - 2 Stars
The contrarian in me couldn't help but back our model on this one.
The Canucks are slight +105 road underdogs tonight despite 69% of wagers and 72% of the handle on the Ottawa Senators to win. Ottawa is the flashy side that made offseason acquisitions at home, yet rebuilding Vancouver stays this short road 'dog.
I think it's because -- like our model and me -- oddsmakers expect regression for these clubs over time.
Vancouver's 46.1% goals-for (GF) percentage is ninth-worst in the NHL, but their expected goals-for rate (48.3% xGF) is a significant amount better. Ottawa's actual (50.0%) and expected (49.3%) rates are much closer. They are who we thought they were.
I also want to continue to buy Thatcher Demko's return to a top-20 goalie after a miserable start (-7.99 GSAx) to the year. Our model gives the Canucks a 54.2% chance to win tonight, which is a no-brainer bet against these 49.0% implied odds.
Jets ML (-105) - 2 Stars
Oettinger is fourth in GSAx (8.22), and he was the league leader before exiting the lineup. Tonight, the Jets will have a massive advantage in goal as a result.
Connor Hellebuyck (11.89 GSAx) has been sensational to start the year, now having passed Oettinger and trailing only Carter Hart in overall GSAx this season. I can't believe I just typed that about Philadelphia's netminder.
As a result, the rested Jets -- at home -- have a better keeper when Winnipeg (3.00) and Dallas (3.23) are close in xGF per 60 minutes. Our model gives the home side a 60.8% chance to win outright against these 51.2% implied odds. That'll be my largest wager of the evening.