NHL Betting Guide: Monday 10/24/22
Of the six games on Monday, four will be across conference lines. That typically takes the emotion out of things, right?
If that's the case, let's lean on numberFire's model and see if we can cook up three winners to start the week right.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
Capitals ML (+108) - 3 Stars
This first showdown is between two Eastern Conference foes, and our model thinks the wrong team is favored here.
The Devils have had an even better start than their 3-2 record indicates. They actually lead the entire NHL in expected-goals-for percentage (65.3 xGF%), which would make them the best team in hockey if you removed luck from the equation.
Of course, New Jersey was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, and our (literally) heartless model still has them as the ninth-worst team in hockey. That's probably closer to correct than the Devils actually being the best team.
On the other side, you have the Capitals, who are also rested for this road game. Washington is 17th in xGF% to start the year, but this playoff team returned many of its key pieces and added Darcy Kuemper.
Kuemper's -1.97 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) is poor, but he was top five in that category a year ago with Colorado. It's too early to bury him.
Our model thinks the Caps, as the better team, win 59.1% of the time. Against 48.1% implied odds at the +108 price, that's a value bet on the 'dog.
Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators
Under 6.0 (+100) - 3 Stars
I expected one of these teams to be a top-seven defensive squad. The other? Not so much.
Of course, Dallas rode a red-hot Jake Oettinger in the playoffs last year, so it's no surprise to see them undefeated on the back of Oettinger's 5.47 GSAx (second-best in the NHL).
However, the Senators actually have allowed fewer expected goals per 60 minutes (2.80) than the Stars have. That's with Anton Forsberg posting a poor -1.16 GSAx, so their defense is legitimate.
This low total actually moved to 6.0 because 67% of the money is on the under here despite it receiving just 48% of tickets. Sharps are acting quickly to back low scoring from these two defensive-minded squads.
Our model expects at least a push against six goals here 66.3% of the time. That's a no-brainer bet against these exact 50.0% implied odds.
Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks
Under 6.5 (+100) - 3 Stars
The Hurricanes let us down with the under against the Oilers, but I'll forgive them today because Vancouver isn't tossing out Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl tonight.
Carolina has still seen the under hit in four of their five games on the same formula that makes them -- for my money -- the best team in hockey. They've allowed the seventh-fewest xGF per 60 minutes (2.62), and whatever leaks their strong defense has allowed, Frederik Andersen (1.65 GSAx) has patched up.
The Canucks have posted just 2.69 xGF per 60 minutes (seventh-lowest in the NHL), so they're not exactly a juggernaut offense.
Our model has been riding the Canes for the under each game so far, and it's confident in the under once again. It's expecting fewer than seven goals 62.4% of the time. With an even 50.0% implied probability at these +100 odds, it's an easy wager to justify.
