NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 10/19/22
Hockey is back!
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,500): The Florida Panthers are large -365 home favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. Bobrovsky is confirmed as tonight's starter and looking for a bounce-back performance after allowing four goals in his most recent outing.
As mentioned yesterday, the Flyers are a team that is vastly overperforming right now. They are scoring more goals than they should be and allowing fewer goals than they should be. They are due for some serious regression in both areas, and that is a good sign for Bobrovsky. The Panthers' offense should be able to find the back of the net, putting him in a spot to come away with the win.
Given the inconsistency with the Panthers' defense, I'm not expecting a shutout win or even a super clean victory for Bobrovsky, but seeing him rack up 30-plus saves and grab the win is on the table.
Nathan MacKinnon ($10,000): With 7 NHL points and 16 shots through just three games, MacKinnon is showing why he is well worth the $10 million-dollar-a-year extension he signed in the offseason. The Colorado Avalanche come in with a strong 3.76 implied goal total -- a level we see them at nearly every night.
As always, MacKinnon is playing on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, giving him a solid floor along with an immense ceiling. The multi-point potential is almost a given for MacKinnon at this point, and he is clearly the best high-salary option tonight. A 6.5-goal total versus the Winnipeg Jets is a good indication we are in for plenty of scoring tonight.
Even with MacKinnon posting seven points in three games, the Avs' offense is due for an increase in production. They are currently only scoring 2.25 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 16th in the league. That is a far cry from the 3.04 goals scored in the same situations they posted last season. It's a three-game sample size for them, so I'm not worried, but they are due for a major jump in scoring.
Matthew Tkachuk ($8,800): The Panthers come in with a slate-high 4.07 implied goal total against the Flyers. As noted above, the Flyers are over-performing right now, and I'm willing to stack against them since regression is coming. Tkachuk is making a great first impression with his new team, posting 4 NHL points and 14 shots on goal in three games. He's providing consistent offensive production.
We can always trust the Panthers since they have a strong offense and are scoring 2.91 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (15th in the league). While being 15th doesn't seem high, many teams have inflated rates due to the small sample size. If we look back to last season, 2.91 goals would've finished as the eighth-best offense in the league.
Tkachuk is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, putting him in a spot to contribute every night.
Artturi Lehkonen ($5,000): I'm going to continue to beat the drum when it comes to Lehkonen being a great value option. Lehkonen is skating on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Avs since Gabriel Landeskog is out. This has resulted in Lehkonen racking up four NHL points and seven shots on goal through three games.
This is as clear of a value option as we have on a small three-game slate -- a player where salary doesn't match his offensive role.
Gustav Forsling ($4,800): The Panthers are going to be without their top defenseman Aaron Ekblad, and that should change their lineup. Ekblad is the defender on the first power-play unit, and with him out, an opening for Forsling is present.
Currently, Forsling is the defender on the second power-play unit, so this is a slight bit of speculation that they will bump him up to the first unit. In reality, that's a pretty normal move for NHL teams, so it's not a "hot take".
With 10 shots and 3 NHL points this season, Forsling already brings nice point-per-dollar value which can be exceeded quickly with his new offensive role.