Stanley Cup Finals Betting Guide: Game 3
We've seen two very different games so far in the Stanley Cup Finals.
In Game 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning rallied to force overtime with the Colorado Avalanche ultimately to fall short when Andre Burakovsky nailed a game-winner.
In Game 2, Colorado didn't let Tampa Bay linger and notched three goals in the first period and two more in the final two periods to blank Tampa Bay 7-0.
With the series now heading to Tampa Bay, where is the betting value for Game 3?
Note: Lines are subject to change after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning Moneyline (-106) - 1 star
Lightning Puckline (+1.5; -275) - 1 star
Our NHL betting model is showing slight value on the Lightning to strike and pick up a win. They are considered 52.1% likely to get the series to 2-1.
Though they were exposed in Game 2, Tampa Bay is still the sixth-best team in the NHL via our power ratings and hold a 27-8-6 home record this season. They've earned 73.2% of points in home games in the regular season to rank sixth, and in the playoffs, they're 7-1-0.
Of course, for as good as the Lightning have been at home, the Avalanche have been about as good on the road. They're 24-14-3 away from Denver, good for a top-10 rate in points percentage (62.2%).
As for the history, it's undecided.
Since 2017 (excluding the bubble season), home teams down 2-0 in a playoff series have been favored at a 79.2% rate but won at just a 48.0% clip despite holding a +0.44 goal differential overall. Though the win rate is a little lower than we'd like, the goal differential remains promising.
Though the Avalanche are scoring in flurries, they are overachieving a bit. MoneyPuck indicates they've got 13.4 goals for above expecation in the playoffs and thus their 3.90 goals for per 60 minutes should be closer to 2.85.
For the Lightning, they're scoring 2.07 goals for per 60 minutes but should be at 2.63, thus narrowing the gap between the two sides.
And as far as the scoring conversation goes, it's worth noting that Andrei Vasilevskiy is still having a good playoff run based on expectation. Though he's allowed 50 goals, that's 8.1 fewer than expected, and he ranks fifth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes among 17 goalies with at least five playoff starts.
Darcy Kuemper ranks 15th of those 17 and has allowed 3.5 more goals than expected.