NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/7/22
The Rangers let a commanding 3-0 lead slip through their fingers on Sunday, but there's still an opportunity to steal home ice from Tampa Bay.
Which one of these two squads will take another step towards a meeting with the Colorado Avalanche?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Rangers ML (+150) - 1 Star
Rangers +1.5 (-178) - 2 Stars
Under 5.5 (-130) - 1 Star
Our model is saying to pump the brakes on nodding this series at two.
While it does believe the Bolts win on Tuesday 57.1% of the time overall, their moneyline comes at a substantial -182 cost. In fact, it's actually showing value on the +150 (40.0% implied odds) mark the Rangers hold, expecting them to win 42.9% of the time.
My personal favorite on the board is also the model's -- New York keeping this low-scoring affair close and covering a one-goal spread. Not only has it happened in all three games, but it feels like a slam dunk if we're considering the under as well. Overall, numberFire's model expects the Rags to cover 68.1% of the time against these 64.0% implied odds.
However, this low total also gets the nod of approval. Personally, I'll bet a bit lighter with both of these squads combining for 6.0 expected goals per 60 minutes thus far in the series. We also have yet to see an overtime contest during these three games.
Still, the model gives one-star conviction, seeing this one staying south of six goals 59.2% of the time. It's easy to see why when 9 of the 10 most similar contests to this one in our database fell short of this total.
All in all, the lean on the under just adds to my conviction on the Rangers' puckline, and that's where I'll be most in Game 4.