NHL Betting Guide: Monday 6/6/22
What was billed to become a high-scoring shootout of a series between the game's two brightest stars has turned into a one-sided beatdown.
Can the Avalanche complete their Western Conference Finals sweep of the Oilers, or will Edmonton survive for another two days?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers
Oilers ML (+112) - 1 Star
Oilers +1.5 (-205) - 3 Stars
Under 7.0 (-128) - 4 Stars
It's not particularly surprising that Colorado leads three games to none in this series. It's just the way it's happened.
Even after an injury to primary netminder Darcy Kuemper, the Oilers can't score. They have just two goals in two games against backup Pavel Francouz. This was an offense that scored 4.3 goals per 60 minutes entering this series, which was the best of all teams in the playoffs.
Now, the Avs were the best team in terms of expected goals allowed (2.2) per 60 minutes this postseason, so something had to give. But, you'd have figured it would have been the Avalanche defense considering they drew Nashville and St. Louis -- two weaker offenses -- on the way to posting that mark.
Our model believes Edmonton finds a way to muster offense in Game 4. It actually expects Edmonton to win this game at home 51.7% of the time, but the puckline is an even better bet. It expects Edmonton to keep this one within a goal a whopping 75.4% of the time.
Therefore, even at the 67.2% implied odds, it's a three-star wager. Personally, I prefer the one-goal buffer with this series all but decided, but the Oilers' moneyline gets a one-star nod of approval for the daring.
The total -- sitting on an even seven -- gets an even stronger thumbs up. It expects this game to see seven goals or fewer 78.3% of the time. That's rated as a four-star wager against -128 odds (56.1% implied probability).