NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/27/22
The intensity has been ratcheted up as we wrap things up with the NHL. Only a handful of games remain in the regular season and the playoff field has been whittled down to 17 contenders. The Dallas Stars need just a point to clinch a postseason berth, while a regulation loss coupled with a Vegas Golden Knights victory leaves the door open for the Knights to usurp the Stars or Nashville Predators for a wild card berth.
As usual, we're running through our favorite plays from the five-game schedule in our NHL Betting Guide.
These are the picks we're looking at from our daily projections!
Coyotes ML (+400): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The aforementioned Stars host the Arizona Coyotes on the second night of a back-to-back. Dallas secured victory against the Golden Knights in a shootout last night, but their odds against the Desert Dogs aren't as good as the betting market implies.
The Stars started Jake Oettinger in last night's crucial matchup, putting themselves at a disadvantage in tonight's matchup. Scott Wedgewood is the projected starter and that is negatively impacting the Stars chances for this Central Division battle. Dallas is doing their netminders no favors over their recent sample, giving up an average of 10.8 high-danger chances over their past four games, above their season-long average of 8.6.
We've also seen improved efforts from the Coyotes over their recent sample. Arizona has attempted 11 or more quality opportunities in four of their past six, which has had a profound impact on output. The Yotes have scored three or more in all but two of those games, including nine over their last two.
Dallas comes into tonight's crucial matchup without any rest, and their backup goalie as their projected starter. Wedgewood faces his former club, which could be a flat spot for the journeyman tendy. Based on our projections, that leaves an edge in backing the Coyotes, which we rate as a two-star play.
Canadiens ML (+310): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Up until this weekend, the New York Rangers still had an outside shot at a division crown. However, that ship has sailed leaving the Rangers with nothing on the line for the last two games of the season. Tonight's matchup against the Montreal Canadiens could be nothing more than a formality as the Rangers keep their sights set on the postseason.
If the Rangers concede that the last two games of the season are meaningless, that could lead to some personnel changes as they rest their star players ahead of the playoffs. Notwithstanding, New York has been badly outplayed over their past few games, posting expected goals-for ratings below 50.0% in three of their past four, including 37.3% or worse in each of their last two.
The Habs are skating to a different tune over their recent schedule; Montreal has outplayed their opponents in two of three, turning to their dormant offense. The Habs have attempted 12 or more high-danger and 22 or more scoring chances in two of three, out-chancing their opponents in the same number of games. That's directly impacting output with the Canadiens scoring 10 total goals over the three-game sample.
Analytically, these teams are positioned on opposite ends of the spectrum over their past few performances. Combined with the Rangers' unique circumstances, there aren't many reasons to support New York tonight. That's validated with our projections, which rate the Canadiens moneyline as a one-star play, per our algorithm.