NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/20/22
Wednesday's four-game slate features some of the top teams in hockey. However, one of the best bets on the board comes from a game of bottom-dwellers.
Which bets should we target?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes +1.5 (-188) - 4 Stars
Coyotes ML (+130) - 2 Stars
Considering numberFire's model sees the Arizona Coyotes winning this game 52.8% of the time, the puckline seems like a no-brainer in this spot.
These two teams are at the bottom of the Central Division with nothing to play for, and they're two of the bottom three squads in Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%) during the month of April.
That said, the Yotes (40.3%) are better than the Blackhawks (39.1%) in that time frame, and they'll be on home ice with equal rest.
The model sees Arizona keeping this one within a tally 76.2% of the time, and that squashes the 65.3% implied odds on their puckline.
Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken
Kraken +1.5 (+112) - 3 Stars
The Colorado Avalanche have enjoyed a historically lucky season analytically.
They're 1st in the NHL in total points despite being 10th in xGF% (52.9%). That's still a really solid hockey club, but they're due for regression. I'd advise them to get it out of the way before a run at Lord Stanley's Cup.
Even though the Avs are still sixth in Actual Goals-For Percentage this month (62.1%), that's always going to be an analytical reason to fade them. They're also a team the public loves. Since Seattle has been playing better hockey of late, we can back them here.
The Kraken are 22nd in April in terms of both Actual and Expected Goals-For Percentage -- a huge boost for them out of the bottom-five mark they've enjoyed most of the season.
numberFire's model expects the Sea Beasts to keep this game within a marker 58.3% of the time. Compared to the delicious +112 odds (47.2% implied probability) we get with them, their puckline is my favorite way to back the Krak.