NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 3/10/22
We're revving up for a busy night of NHL action tonight with 13 games on deck. It's an East coast friendly schedule with only two of those contests starting after 8 pm ET. Both games went over the total last night, making it 13 of 18 since the start of the week.
Here are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Ottawa Senators vs. Seattle Kraken
Senators Moneyline (-140): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Ottawa Senators have turned a corner with their efforts recently, which should help them compete against the Seattle Kraken on Thursday night. However, the betting market is still undervaluing their chances at home.
The Sens have turned up the compete level, attempting 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in three straight games and out-possessing two of their past three opponents. Those efforts have led to improved expected goals-for ratings, with Ottawa outplaying their previous two opponents. Good results should follow the Sens' improved performances.
Seattle is trending in the opposite direction over their recent sample, getting outplayed in two straight and seven of their past 10. Cumulatively over that stretch, the Kraken have posted a 45.2% expected goals-for rating, below their season-long average of 48.0%. Ineffective offensive play has been the Kraken's downfall all season, with Seattle attempting the ninth-fewest scoring chances and seventh-fewest high-danger chances at five-on-five.
These teams are trending in opposite directions. Ottawa has elevated their play at a time when the Kraken have put forth some lackluster efforts. Our modeling gives the edge to the Senators tonight and backing them on the moneyline is rated as a two-star play.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes +2.5 (+144): 5-Star Rating out of 5
It's not uncommon for the betting market to overreact to the Toronto Maple Leafs' chances on any given night, but it's crossed a line in tonight's matchup against the Arizona Coyotes. The Yotes enter as +2.5 underdogs on the puckline with a price of +144. That leaves a significant edge in backing the visitors.
Market price notwithstanding, the Yotes have been playing great hockey over their last couple of games. Arizona has put up expected goals-for ratings above 60.0% thanks to assertive offensive efforts. The Coyotes have totaled 54 scoring and 25 high-danger chances across those two games, out-chancing their opponents in both categories in both contests.
That spells trouble for the Maple Leafs, who have had some defensive lapses over their recent schedule. Toronto has given up 11 or more quality opportunities in three of their past four games, out-chancing their opponents just once over that stretch. That's impacting outcomes, with the Leafs splitting those four contests and covering the puckline just once.
Based on our projections, the Leafs' advantage isn't as big as the betting market implies. Arizona's stepped up their efforts recently, and the Leafs are running around in their own end. On that basis, we rate the Yotes +2.5 as a five-star wager.