NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 2/16/22
It's a relatively quiet night in the NHL tonight, with a modest four-game docket that is sandwiched between two busy nights. Action early this week has been of the high-scoring variety with eight of the 13 games going over the total, with visitors cashing at the same frequency. We're expecting those trends to correct in today's NHL Betting Guide.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers
Hurricanes (-113): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6.5 (-105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Florida Panthers have hit a blip in their season, putting together some underwhelming efforts over their recent sample. That puts them at a bigger disadvantage against the Carolina Hurricanes, who are building momentum over their past few games.
It's not all sunshine with young teams, and that's been the case with the Panthers over their recent schedule. They've posted expected goals-for percentages below 50.0% in five of their past eight games. The Panthers have abandoned defensive zone coverage, allowing 12 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in two of their previous three outings. The bigger issue is that they've been out-chanced in six of their last 10 overall.
Despite the inefficiencies, the Panthers have still managed to collect wins in seven of those eight contests. In doing so, they've elevated their season-long PDO to the fourth-highest mark in the league and put themselves at risk of regression.
The Hurricanes have been nothing short of dominant over their recent stretch, outplaying seven of their past eight. The defense has been at the forefront of those performances, which they can lean into to limit the Panthers' offense.
The betting market doesn't accurately reflect the Hurricanes' chances tonight. On that basis, backing them on the moneyline is rated as a one-star play, per our projections. There's also an edge in backing the under, rated as a two-star play.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
Golden Knights (+112): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Dallas Stars accomplished something that 19 teams couldn't do before them -- knock off the Colorado Avalanche in regulation. That could be the start of an extended fall for the Avs, who have outlived their metrics.
Advantage Vegas Golden Knights tonight at the T-Mobile Arena.
The Avalanche weren't as assertive as their 17-0-2 record implied; they were outplayed on seven occasions throughout their lofty run. Colorado relied on timely scoring and overtime to notch wins. Eight of those contests needed overtime or a shootout. That run elevated their PDO beyond sustainable levels, putting the Avs on a collision course with regression as outcomes balance with metrics.
That should continue tonight against a Golden Knights squad that will be debuting Jack Eichel. Eichel was acquired back in November in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres. He will get a taste of just how good the Knights are at home. They've outplayed 15 of their past 16 opponents at five-on-five in their own building.
Vegas has a way of neutralizing their opponents, allowing eight or fewer quality chances in four of their past five games. They've also allowed 17 or fewer scoring opportunities in three of their past five.
Based on our projections, the Knights are the side to back in tonight's Western Conference battle. The betting market is overestimating the Avs' chances, leaving an edge in backing the home side. We rate it as a one-star play.
