NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/12/22
We have a modest three-game schedule on the horizon but some substantive advantages to look forward to in the betting market. Three games needed overtime or a shootout last night, with the over going 4-2-1. Both trends are worth watching over the coming days.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Arizona Coyotes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Coyotes +1.5 (-104): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Coyotes Moneyline (+250): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Arizona Coyotes are in a good spot on Wednesday night. The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight's contest on the second night of a back-to-back, starting their backup goalie amid a downturn in their advanced metrics.
The Leafs' five-on-five metrics have deteriorated over their recent sample. Toronto has been outplayed in three of their past six, posting a cumulative 48.7% expected goals-for percentage over that span. Despite those metrics working against them, the Leafs are 5-0-1 over that six-game stretch. Their success is contraindicated in their metrics, and the Leafs are regression candidates over their coming games.
The opposite is true for the Coyotes, who have sharpened their metrics recently. The Yotes have posted game scores above 50.0% in four of their past six, relying on tidier metrics in the attacking zone and scoring six or more goals in three of those contests. Those metrics are not yet reflected in Arizona's outcomes, as they've won just two games over that span. We're expecting positive regression from the Coyotes over their coming games.
Based on our projections, the betting market has overreacted to the Maple Leafs' chances tonight. That leaves an edge in backing the Coyotes on the puckline and moneyline, which we rate as four- and three-star plays, respectively.
Dallas Stars vs. Seattle Kraken
Under 6.0 (-112): 2-Star Rating out of 5
On Wednesday night, the Dallas Stars host the Seattle Kraken, who are in the middle of a mini three-game road trip. The Kraken have had a hard time scoring all season, putting up some of the worst offensive metrics in the NHL this season. They've been equally stingy defensively, which should lead to a low-scoring game in Dallas.
The Kraken have attempted the fifth-fewest high-danger chances, fourth-fewest scoring chances, and sixth-fewest shots at five-on-five this season. That has resulted in decreased output, as Seattle is averaging 2.8 goals per game, scoring two or fewer in three of their past six. There aren't any green sprouts in the ground, too, as the Kraken have attempted more than nine high-danger chances across all strengths just twice over their past seven games.
Dallas can relate to the diminished offensive metrics. The Stars have attempted the fourth-fewest shots this season, putting up the sixth-worst expected goals-for at five-on-five. Worse, we're expecting regression from the Stars over their coming games, as they've overachieved relative to their season-long metrics over their recent sample. Dallas has posted above-average shooting percentages in four of their five games, scoring 21 goals over their five-game sample.
Goals will be at a premium tonight in Dallas. Neither team has strong offensive metrics and both come in amid decreased offensive metrics. That leaves an edge in backing under, which we rate as a two-star play, per our projections.
