NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 12/8/21
It's been a busy week in the Chel, and there's no slowing down tonight. We have four more games to sort through as we head into tonight's docket. There are two home favorites and two home dogs, with three of the totals sitting on a flat 6.0. We're breaking down a few of our favorite plays in our daily NHL Betting Guide.
These are the plays from our daily projections!
New York Rangers vs. Colorado Avalanche
Rangers Moneyline (+142): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Rangers +1.5 (-180): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The New York Rangers will be playing on the second consecutive night when they host the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday. The betting market favors the Avs, leaving an advantage in backing the Rangers.
New York has been one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 8-1-1 and posting the ninth-best expected goals for percentage. The Broadway Blueshirts have also been great over their recent sample, outplaying five of their past seven opponents. That's translating to success on the ice, as the Rangers have won seven in a row.
They are going to make things difficult on the Avs, who are at risk of entering a correction phase, based on their recent performances. The Avs have posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in four of their past six, a span in which they have three wins and are substantially overachieving relative to their production metrics. Colorado has gone above their expected goals total in four of their past five, scoring on 13.8% of their shots. Nathan MacKinnon and company have reached a tipping point where they should start to regress.
Based on our projections, the Avs' advantage isn't as pronounced as the betting market implies. That leaves significant edges in taking the Rangers on the moneyline and pucklines, which we rate as two- and four-star plays, respectively.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Boston Bruins
Bruins Moneyline (-150): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Boston Bruins season has not gone as expected. The perennial powerhouse has 25 points through their first 21 games and sit fifth in the Atlantic Division. However, the B's metrics are better than their record implies, which should help them knock off the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday night.
Boston has been one of the best teams analytically this season. The Bruins rank fifth in expected goals-for percentage and have the third-best possession rating in the NHL. That's been even more evident over their recent sample, with the Bruins posting an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five of their past six, going north of 62.0% in three of those five games.
That has not yet translated to success on the ice, as the Bruins have the 16th-ranked actual goals-for percentage and 14th-ranked points percentage. We like the Bruins as positive regression candidates over their coming games.
The Canucks have been less successful this season, posting the 20th-ranked expected goals-for percentage, which is modestly ahead of their 25th-ranked actual rating. Defensive zone coverage has been questionable for the Nucks, as they've allowed 11 or more high-danger chances in three of their past five games and allow an average of 10.7 per game. That could give the Bruins too much room to capitalize with their top line.
The Bruins should be more substantive favorites than they are. Our projections give them a 61.3% chance of winning tonight, which is in excess of the implied probability of 60.0% that comes with the -150 price tag. It's on that basis that we rate the Bruins moneyline as a one-star play.
