NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/24/21
It's been a favorite-friendly start to the week in the NHL with six of the nine betting favorites winning over the past two days. There's a good chance we see some fallout from that trend on tonight's 14-game schedule. We've got a pair of home underdogs that are worth backing ahead of puck drop.
These are the picks from our daily projections!
Arizona Coyotes vs. Edmonton Oilers
Coyotes +1.5 (-150): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Coyotes moneyline (+176): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Don't look now, but the Arizona Coyotes have wins in two straight and three of their past four. They match up with the Edmonton Oilers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back on Wednesday, with losses in three of their past six.
The Yotes have seen a recent uptick in their metrics. After starting the season by getting outplayed in eight of 13 games, the Coyotes have responded by outplaying their opponents in three of their past six. Arizona remains short on wins but should continue to progress as their actual metrics catch up with expected values.
The Oilers are trending in the opposite direction. Edmonton has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in three of their past five. Their inflated PDO is another indicator that the Oilers could be in an extended correction phase. The Oilers still have the fourth-highest PDO, despite the losses piling up.
Edmonton's chances tonight aren't as good as the betting market implies. These teams are pointed in opposite directions and the Coyotes are the team worth backing in the betting market. We rate the puckline and moneyline wagers as 3- and 2-star wagers, respectively, as per our projections.
Seattle Kraken vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Kraken moneyline (+122): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes are playing their fifth game of a six-game road trip tonight against the Seattle Kraken. Carolina has been on the west coast for the past 10 days, and their first four efforts haven't been good.
The Canes have posted game scores below 50.0% in three of their first four games of their road trip, decreasing their production metrics in each game. The Hurricanes are hoping that they bottomed out against the San Jose Sharks last time out, as they posted just three quality chances at five-on-five.
Despite the metrics working against them, the Canes have points in all four games, going 3-0-1 over that span. That has elevated their PDO to a league-best 1.035, setting them up for regression over their coming sample.
The Kraken are firmly planted on the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum. Seattle has solid underlying metrics which support they should be more successful than they have been. The Kraken rank in the top half of the league in expected goals-for percentage, currently sitting 15th, but have the seventh-worst actual rating this season. They sit dead-last in PDO, despite outplaying 10 of their past 13 opponents.
Based on our projections, there is an implied advantage in backing the Kraken tonight. Seattle is deserving of more wins, while the Canes can't continue to get outplayed and win. We're betting Seattle comes out on top tonight.
