NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 11/18/21
We will be settling in for an 11-game slate on Thursday night after tolerating a modest three-game schedule last night. Two of the three favorites won last night, but there are a few live dogs from our projections. We're highlighting a pair of home teams, one favorite and one underdog, in today's NHL Betting Guide.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Florida Panthers vs. New Jersey Devils
Panthers Moneyline (-205): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Florida Panthers started the season as one of the best teams in the league. They faltered slightly over the past couple of weeks but appear to be on an upward trend. That should help them get past the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night.
The Panthers have tidied things up defensively over the past five outings, limiting their opponents to an average of 19.2 scoring and 9.4 high-danger chances across all strengths. That has propelled them to a cumulative 62.2% expected goals-for rating over that sample, outplaying their opponents in every game. However, there is a disconnect between expected and actual outcomes, as the Panthers have only one win over that span.
The opposite is true for New Jersey. The Devils have been outplayed in four straight games, posting an expected goals-for percentage below 39.0% in three of those games. The Devils are giving up a ton of chances, allowing 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five. New Jersey has two wins during that span, which are two more than they probably should have. Look for them to enter a correction phase over their coming games.
These teams are on a collision course for correction. The Panthers are due for more wins, while the Devils have more than they should over their recent stretch. That leaves an edge in backing the Panthers, who should be on everyone's positive regression radar moving forward. We rate the moneyline wager as a two-star play, per our projections.
Arizona Coyotes vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Coyotes Moneyline (+138): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Over 5.5 (+102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Bettors have to be careful when backing the Arizona Coyotes, who are one of the worst teams in the NHL. According to our projections, there's an implied advantage in backing them tonight when they take on the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Arizona has been trending in the right direction over its recent sample. Both of their wins have come over their past five games, and their PDO is 0.975 over that stretch, bringing their season metric up to 0.944. Production metrics are up relative to season averages, resulting in more goals, as the Coyotes have above average shooting percentages in three of their past five. Those metrics should continue to progress against the Blue Jackets' questionable road metrics.
Columbus has been ineffective on the road this season. The Blue Jackets are allowing an average of 14.0 high-danger chances and 38.3 scoring opportunities over their four road games, posting an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in all four games. In total, Columbus has the fifth-worst rating on the road this season but still has two wins to show for their efforts.
Look for the Coyotes to come out on top in this one. The Desert Dogs are trending in the right direction, and Columbus is a mess on the road. There's value on the home side tonight.
