NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 11/4/21
The overtime trend continued last night in the NHL, with two more games needing extra time to determine a winner. That makes it six OT clashes out of 13 games over the previous two days for a 46.2% hit-rate on wagers that typically hover around the +300 mark. We're hoping for more of the same tonight on a loaded nine-game slate.
These are a few of the wagers from our daily projections!
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Penguins moneyline (-128): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
The Battle of Pennsylvania rages on when the Pittsburgh Penguins host the Philadelphia Flyers at the PPG Paints Arena. The Penguins may be dealing with a few injuries, but our projections still give them a substantive advantage over their in-state rivals.
This season, the Penguins have been great at home, putting up an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five of their six games. At five-on-five, the Pens have a 55.5% expected goals-for rating, which is slightly above their actual percentage of 52.0%. Pittsburgh has been playing lockdown defense at home, allowing nine or fewer high-danger chances in all six of their home games for an average of 7.0 per game.
That stifling defense could inhibit the Flyers' already underwhelming attack. Philly has attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances in six of eight games this season, including four or fewer in two of their past three. Scoring chances and shots are also trending down, as the Flyers have attempted more than 16 scoring opportunities and 23 shots at five-on-five just once over the past three games.
The Penguins may be shorthanded, but the Flyers can't get anything going offensively. Based on our projections, the Pens have a 72.2% chance of winning this one, which is substantially higher than the 56.1% implied probability at the -128 moneyline price. It's on that basis that we rate the Pens moneyline as a three-star bet.
Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars
Flames moneyline (-156): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (+106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Calgary Flames' offense is coming alive over their recent games, and that should help them move past the Dallas Stars on Thursday night.
Calgary has been outstanding over the past two, attempting 21 high-danger chances at five-on-five and 28 across all strengths. Scoring chances and shots are also flowing abundantly, as the Flames have attempted 73 and 76, respectively, across all strengths. They have also been effective at scoring prior to this recent surge, tallying four or more goals in five of their past six games.
We're seeing a shocking amount of offense from the Stars over their recent sample of games. The Stars have attempted 116 scoring and 46 high-danger chances across all strengths over their previous three contests, including 42 or more scoring chances in two of those three games. That has yet to result in increased output, as the Stars are scoring on just 6.0% of shots over that span. We should expect output to catch up with production and the Stars to see a surge in scoring over their coming games.
Tonight shapes up as an excellent spot to back the over, which is contraindicated in the current betting price. That leaves a moderately sized advantage in taking the over, which we rate as a two-star play. There's also an edge in backing the Flames, as they should continue their dominant play to start the season. Flames moneyline is also rated as a two-star play, per our projections.
