NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 6/24/21

Cole Caufield has come up with some timely goals for the Habs this postseason. Can he help Game 6 go over the total?

The Vegas Golden Knights face a must-win Game 6 against the Montreal Canadiens in Montreal tonight. The Golden Knights have relied on their efficient offense throughout the season and we should expect them to rely on that more heavily tonight as they try to force a Game 7.

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Over 5.5 (+130): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

This series has featured five straight low-scoring games, despite some gaudy offensive metrics. The Habs and Knights have combined for at least 20 high-danger scoring chances in all five games this series, with an average of 24.0 quality chances per game. Both teams have been equally as effective with their offenses, with the Knights' Game 4 effort being the only occasion where a team didn't attempt at least 10 such chances.

However, output hasn't caught up to match production yet. All five games have stayed under the total and only two times throughout this series has either team scored more than four goals. Shooting percentages on both teams are below regular season averages and should be expected to progress.

Goaltending is a large reason why output has been stymied, but it appears as though Marc-Andre Fleury has entered a correction phase. Fleury has stopped just 88.0% of shots over his last three outings, allowing three goals in each one of those games. Not surprisingly, the Knights have lost all three of those contests.

Carey Price continues to be the backbone of the Canadiens' success, but his metrics appear unsustainable. Price is stopping 88.5% of high-danger shots this postseason while keeping his save percentage at an impressive 93.3% mark. Both metrics are well above average, putting him at risk of regression. Decreased goaltending efficiency on both ends of the ice could easily propel this game over the total.

Based on our projections, the under streak should come to an end tonight in Montreal. Price is playing above his metrics, while Fleury's recent game log indicates that he's struggling. Both offenses are operating efficiently, but output has yet to catch up. The over 5.5 at +130 is rated as a one-star play.