NHL Betting Guide: Friday 4/9/21
Fridays are always great days, but they are made even better by seven NHL games being played. These are the first of 24 games scheduled throughout the weekend, which means there's plenty of action to satiate our need for hockey.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Kings +1.5 (-245): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Kings moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings get reacquainted tonight in San Jose on the first night of a back-to-back. The Sharks took both games last weekend, but based on our projections, tonight is a good night to back the Kings.
Generally, PDO is a good indicator for when a team's luck should change, and the Kings have been trending in the wrong direction for too long. Over their last eight games, LA has a PDO of .945, dropping their season-long average to .999. The Kings are starting to outplay their opponents and have managed more scoring chances and high-danger chances in each of their last two games. They've increased their production metrics in each of the last four outings, and after being limited to six goals at five-on-five over their last four games, they should start to see output catch up.
Conversely, the Sharks' metrics pendulum should start swinging toward negative regression. San Jose had outplayed their opponents at five-on-five in five straight games before falling flat on their face against the lowly Anaheim Ducks last time out. That could be an indicator for things to come, as the Sharks have exceeded their average production metrics for five straight games and should work their way back down toward average.
According to our projections, the Kings should be favored against the Sharks tonight, as they have a 54.3% chance of winning. Compared to their underdog price in the betting market, that leaves an advantage in backing the Kings to win and to cover the +1.5 puckline. We rate those wagers as two- and three-star plays, respectively.
Wild moneyline (-118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The St. Louis Blues may have gotten the win their last time out, but their metrics suggest that they were lucky to get it.
The Blues were outplayed at five-on-five for the fourth straight game and gave up an alarming amount of chances. The Vegas Golden Knights attempted 47 scoring chances and 25 high-danger chances at five-on-five, but Jordan Binnington stood on his head, with his 50-save performance led the Blues to victory.
That game marked the third straight contest in which opponents attempted 11 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five. It was also the third time in four games in which St. Louis allowed 31 or more shots. The average of those metrics increases to 17.0 high-danger chances and 39.3 shots across all strengths over those four games.
The Minnesota Wild are coming off a momentum-building win against the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday night. The Wild shellacked the Avs to the tune of an 8-3 beat down. It was the Wild's third victory over their last four games and the third straight game in which they limited their opponent to seven or fewer high-danger chances. The Blues already have a hard time creating offense, and Minnesota's defensive structure is going to make it even harder.
The Wild are priced as modest -118 road favorites, but based on our projections, they should be -125 favorites. That leaves an edge in taking Minnesota on the moneyline, which is rated as a one-star play.