NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 3/30/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Curtis McElhinney ($8,700): The safest option among goalies tonight would be McElhinney in net for the Tampa Bay Lightning, as they come in as -255 home favorites. Going to the goalie from the Lightning is nothing new over the past few seasons. Their win equity is always high, and they have great overall safety, especially in cash games. Tonight, McElhinney -- who is expected as the starter -- will be taking on the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are one of the weakest offensive teams in the league.
This season, the Blue Jackets hold a 48.91 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. As you can imagine, if a team isn't taking a ton of shot attempts, they aren't producing a ton of goals. This is true for the Blue Jackets, who are scoring the ninth-fewest (2.12) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. McElhinney should have an easy go at things tonight and come away with the win.
High-Priced Skaters
Sebastian Aho ($7,800): Keeping it simple when you are paying up for the top stars is always a solid idea. Don't overthink things -- just go with the best matchup and a consistent option. That is what we have with Sebastian Aho tonight, as the Carolina Hurricanes have a slate-high 3.59 implied goal total. They are on the road to take on the Chicago Blackhawks, who are in the bottom 10 of the league in both Corsi Against (56.87) and goals allowed (2.50) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. On top of that, the Blackhawks are allowing the eighth-most (10.97) High-Danger Chances against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
This sets Aho, who is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, up for a big night, and he's an ideal option in all formats. His production over his last 10 games has been strong, and that should only continue tonight. In these past 10 games, Aho has 13 NHL points and 26 shots on goal.
Jonathan Huberdeau ($7,700): The Florida Panthers are dealing with a few key injuries, and that makes Huberdeau the best player in their lineup. Topline center Aleksander Barkov is out for a few weeks. Their best defender, Aaron Ekblad, was injured during Sunday's game, and you shouldn't watch the clip -- it's bad. Ekblad was having a career-year, and both of these injuries leave a void in the Panthers' offense. This has pushed Huberdeau up to the first forward line, which has full ice-time correlation to their first power-play unit.
They have a chance to rebound and get moving in the right direction tonight versus the Detroit Red Wings, who are 12th worst in the league in both Corsi Against (53.86) and goals against (2.45) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. It won't be a surprise to Huberdeau grab ahold of the Panthers' offense to build on his 10 NHL points and 37 shots over his last 10 games. They need to fill the missing offense, and he should be the one leading the charge.
Value Skaters
Brett Connolly ($3,000): As noted right above, the Panthers have a few injuries, and this has shifted their forward lines around. We now see Connolly on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which is borderline never seen for a player who is only $3,000, aka the minimum salary. Connolly was previously a depth forward for the Panthers, so his five shots on goal and one NHL point over his last 10 games aren't going to pop. But the combination of his new offensive role and his salary are too good to pass up on tonight's slate.
Justin Schultz ($3,900): With a 6.5 over/under, the Washington Capitals at the New York Rangers is a great spot to look for fantasy production or a game stack. Both teams are in the top seven of the league for the most goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. We saw this on display this past weekend when the Capitals won 5-4. If this is going to be the case, getting cheaper exposure to this game can allow you to pay up for the top stars, such as Alex Ovechkin ($8,600) or Artemi Panarin ($7,600). Schultz is a player who can allow that because he is under $4,000 and seeing time on the second power-play unit for the Capitals.
