NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 3/8/21
Hockey is officially back! NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Philipp Grubauer ($8,300): The Colorado Avalanche come in as -200 home favorites against the Arizona Coyotes, which should make Grubauer a popular cash game option tonight. Grubauer has picked up the win in six of his last 10 games while allowing two goals or fewer seven times. The level of consistency he brings on a nightly basis is fantastic, exactly what you are aiming for in cash games.
However, while his safety is very clear, he often can lack a ceiling of fantasy points. The Avalanche have a league-best (46.65) Corsi Against (Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, meaning they are great at preventing opposing teams from generating offense. This often leads to Grubauer picking up a win with about 25 saves. While that might be great in real hockey, that impacts his DFS ceiling for the sake of safety.
Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,900): The St. Louis Blues saw Tarasenko make his season debut over the weekend, after missing the first few months due to shoulder surgery. While he was unable to record an NHL point, he did manage to get four shots on goal, while returning to his usual spot on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. All in all, it was a good debut for Tarasenko and now he is in a spot to build on that with a matchup against the San Jose Sharks tonight.
This season, the Sharks are allowing 3.32 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. They hold a 57.6 Corsi Against (Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-worst in the league. They are legitimately one of the worst defenses in the NHL, and the potential for scoring they offer to opponents is what DFS dreams are made of.
Max Pacioretty ($8,000): Even though this game has an over/under of 5.5 against the Minnesota Wild, it can easily go over that. Both teams are in the top four of the league for the most goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season. If that is the case, you should be looking to the top forward options from the Golden Knights and that means Max Pacioretty.
In the two games he has played against the Wild this season, Pacioretty has a total of 14 shots on goal and 4 NHL points. While that might be a small sample size, that lines up with the fact the Wild have the second-worst (57.88) Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season. They are allowing far too many shot attempts to their opponents and an elite talent like Pacioretty was able to expose that. His floor of points is super solid tonight and with his role on the first power-play unit, he always has plenty of upside.
Joel Armia ($3,700): The Montreal Canadiens have a 3.53 implied goal total on the road versus the Vancouver Canucks and you want to grab some equity in their offense. The Canucks are simply terrible on defense, with the third-worst goals against (2.94) and the third-worst Corsi Against (57.85), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Armia is only $3,700, yet he is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit for the Canadiens. He is a clear value play who has been putting up solid numbers lately, with 16 shots on goal and 4 NHL points in his last five games.
Andre Burakovsky ($4,800): With Nathan MacKinnon not expected to play tonight due to a head injury, Burakovsky has been moved up to the first forward line and the first power-play unit. This would be three straight games missed for MacKinnon, which presents Burakovsky as a clear value option under $5,000, as he is seeing an expanded offensive role. The Avalanche are big -200 home favorites against the Arizona Coyotes tonight, which should make their first forward line a bit chalky. He comes in with 11 shots on goal and 4 NHL points in his last five games, which is, hopefully, on the rise with extra ice time.