NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/3/21
The gauntlet that is the NHL schedule this week continues with six games on the go. Favorites had a field day yesterday, winning seven of the eight games, covering the puckline in five of those games.
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
Oilers moneyline (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Oilers +1.5 (-295): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Justin Holl and Jake Muzzin have the Connor McDavid elixir, holding the star pointless over his last two games, but it's still been the Edmonton Oilers who have outplayed the Toronto Maple Leafs through the first two games of their three-game set.
The Oilers have posted expected goals-for percentages of 55.8% and 52.9% in games one and two of the series across all strengths. They have out-possessed the Leafs by a wide margin, out-shot them, and created more high-danger chances. But Edmonton's offense has been hamstrung by Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson, failing to record a goal.
Oilers' goaltending has also dropped off in a big way, stopping only 86.6% of shots in the two games. Consequently, the Oilers PDO is .866 over those two games, which ended a run in which they were above 1.000 in eight of nine games.
The Leafs have inched closer to the opposite end of the PDO spectrum over their last 13 games. In that time, Toronto has put up a 1.058 PDO, bringing their season-long average to 1.036, ranking second in the league. The Leafs are starting to get outplayed and have a bloated PDO, making them regression candidates.
This is the first night of a back-to-back with travel for the Leafs, so goaltending usage will impact them today and tomorrow. With Hutch projected to start, our modeling gives the Oilers a 57.7% chance of winning tonight. Considering the underdog price on the home team, that makes the moneyline and puckline wagers two-star plays.
Wild moneyline (+128): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
When the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild met on Monday night, they were on some pretty pronounced trends. The Wild had outplayed their opponents in six consecutive games, and the Knights had been outplayed in three straight. Both streaks ended Monday, with Vegas posting a 64.1% expected goals for percentage.
In the six games leading up to that contest, the Wild held five of their opponents to two or fewer goals. Minnesota's dominance from an advanced perspective is related in part to increased opportunities from high-danger areas. The Wild had 11 or more high-danger chances in five of those six games.
With regards to offensive production, Vegas has been working in the opposite direction. Vegas had averaged just 6.7 high-danger chances and 18.0 scoring chances in their three games leading up to Monday night. Those numbers didn't jump substantially, going up to 11 and 24, respectively.
We should expect a bounce-back effort from the Wild tonight, and don't be surprised if the Golden Knights offensive woes continue. Based on our projections, there's value in backing the Wild in this one. The betting market has moved too far on the Knights, making Wild moneyline a one-star play.