NHL Betting Guide: Friday 2/12/21
We have two games to look forward to on the NHL schedule tonight! That might not seem like much, but at the start of the week, we only had one game, which means our hockey content has doubled thanks to COVID-19 rescheduling.
The 'dogs are barking as we take a look at two underdogs worth backing!
New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins
Rangers Moneyline (+158): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Rangers +1.5 (-178): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Home probably feels like an abstract idea to the Boston Bruins, who haven't played in Boston in over two weeks. Friday night's contest against the New York Rangers will be their sixth of seven straight road games. Their next game on home ice is scheduled for February 18, meaning they are 21 straight days between home games, which is approaching San Jose Sharks territory.
These teams faced off on Wednesday night, and it was the Rangers who held an advantage from a metrics perspective. New York had a positive expected goals-for ratio, but it was Tuukka Rask who stole the win for the Bs -- which was also the case when the Bruins beat the Philadelphia Flyers the game before. The Bruins can't continue to be outplayed and expect to keep winning.
Friday night's contest is the Bruins' first night of a back-to-back, and Jaroslav Halak has been confirmed as the starter. Halak has been less effective on the road. Over his last 11 road games, he's allowed at least three goals in six of them and is stopping only 90.4% of shots.
Igor Shesterkin has been in some kind of mood recently. Over the last four games, he's stopped 93.9% of shots and allowed seven goals. This is what the Rangers were expecting from Shesterkin when they moved on from Henrik Lundqvist this past off-season. Wins should be easier to come by with metrics like these.
The betting market has gone in a completely different direction than our projections. According to our modeling, the Rangers have a 53.1% of winning tonight. Working backwards, that would imply that they should be priced around -113, which is a long way off the +158 available. As such, taking them on the moneyline is a three-star play. That also means that there's a substantive advantage in backing them on the puckline, as well, which is rated as a four-star play.
Arizona Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues
Coyotes moneyline (+116): 2-star Rating Out of 5
Coyotes +1.5 (-255): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
There will eventually be a time when the Arizona Coyotes play someone other than the St. Louis Blues, but tonight is not that night. These teams are meeting for the fifth straight time and have two more games planned against each other before moving on to different opponents, The Yotes hold a distinct advantage by winning three of the first four and have the benefit of shifting to home ice.
Arizona has been winning thanks to dominant play in high-danger parts of the ice. They have outscored the Blues by a 12-to-7 margin over the first four games and have outchanced them at a 47-to-35 margin.
The Blues have tried using both Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso, but neither goalie has been effective at limiting the damage, as the Yotes are scoring on 42.9% of high-danger chances.
The opposite is true for Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta, who have combined to stop 92.1% of shots, including 79.2% of opportunities from high-danger spots.
The Coyotes have held the upper-hand through four games, and that will likely continue now that they've gained home-ice advantage. Our projections also favor the Yotes, giving them a 53.0% chance of winning. That means that the implied advantage lies with backing the home dogs in this one. We rate the moneyline and puckline wagers as two-star plays.
