NHL Betting Guide: Saturday 1/30/21

From a scheduling perspective, this week was a little different. The NHL alternated busy nights with quiet nights, leaving a hockey itch that needed to be scratched. But we've arrived at the weekend, and there's a full offering of NHL games today and tomorrow. The under and favorite trends continue, and it's worth keeping in mind as you prepare your bets.

Here are some wagers from three of tonight's games that you should make at .

Montreal Canadiens vs. Calgary Flames

Flames moneyline (+108):1-Star Rating Out of 5
Flames +1.5 (-225): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (+110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

You can tell that frustration is starting to set in for the Calgary Flames -- and rightfully so. From a metrics perspective, they continue to dominate games, but they haven't had any luck in winning them. Since the first game of the season, the Flames have led possession and production metrics and posted a positive expected goals-for percentage in every game. Despite that success, they have lost three straight while posting a .927 PDO. Calgary is overdue for a few more wins, and if they sustain this level of production, it won't be long before they get there.

The Montreal Canadiens had a productive offseason, addressing their goal-scoring needs, and it's already paying off. Their production metrics have increased, and scoring is coming naturally across all three lines. The Habs haven't netted fewer than three goals in any game this season, and they lead the league in goals per game. The problem is that the Habs' output is bordering on unsustainable. Through seven games, they are shooting at 14.1%, including scoring on 32.2% of high-danger opportunities. It's been a great start but also an unsustainable one.

The metrics on each side leave an advantage in backing the Flames tonight. Our projections have Calgary as the favorite, but has them at +108 underdogs. Taking them on the moneyline is a one-star play while taking them to cover +1.5 on the puckline is a three-star play. Carey Price and Jacob Markstrom are expected to start, and this could turn into a goaltenders duel. We have under 5.5 (+110) is rated as a one-star play.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers

Red Wings moneyline (+146): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Red Wings +1.5 (-164): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The Florida Panthers have some catching up to do after missing four games due to COVID postponements. The team has three wins and an overtime loss through four games, but their in-game metrics aren't as inspired as the outcomes. At five-on-five, Florida is averaging 8.0 high-danger chances and 18.8 scoring chances, which puts them in the wrong half of the league in those metrics. Those stats look even worse when you consider that the Panthers have played the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets.

You wouldn't know it by looking at the Detroit Red Wings' record or outcomes, but they continue to skate with the best of the teams in this league. They've had tough losses against the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars, but the game scores suggest that this team is closer than they appear. Detroit has posted positive expected goals-for percentages against both those teams as well as against the aforementioned Hawks and Jackets, but Detroit has just two wins. Their PDO has plummeted over the last four games ,dropping to .909, and unless they start playing with opposite-handed sticks, that can't get much worse.

Game scores imply that Florida's playing to not lose rather than to win. That strategy might not work against a Red Wings team that will be forcing the issue as they try to turn around their early-season misfortunes. numberFire's projections have the Red Wings listed as 55.1% favorites, which leaves a significant advantage in taking them to cover the puckline and win outright, making those five- and three-star plays, respectively. There's also a modest edge in taking the over, which we rare as a one-star play.

Anaheim Ducks vs. St. Louis Blues

Blues moneyline (-162): 1-Star Rating Out Of 5
Blues -1.5 (+180): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (+105): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The St. Louis Blues continue to deploy a tight defensive system and an opportunistic offense, but it looks like a few personnel changes have led to increased output. Through seven games, the Blues have scored three or more goals five times due in part to their 10.8% shooting percentage. It's not what we would normally expect from the Blues, but five of their seven games have gone over the total.

The Anaheim Ducks' rebuild continues, and if early game results are any indication, it might be a long few years for Ducks fans. Anaheim is last in possession metrics, last in expected goals-for percentage and among the worst chances allowed. Through eight games this season, they have given up at least 13 high-danger chances seven times. The Ducks' offensive metrics are only marginally better, but they still rank in the bottom third of the league across all metrics.

The Blues are in a different class than the Ducks. They have put up some impressive metrics early this season, and I expect that success to continue. That is reflected in our projections, which suggests that there are advantages in taking the Blues on the moneyline and puckline. We also like over 5.5 and grade all three of these wagers as one-star bets.