NHL Betting Guide: Friday 9/11/20

Unders continue to be reliable trend in the NHL with six of the last eight games staying under the total, including four of five Conference Finals games. Totals might be worth keeping an eye on as we progress towards the Stanley Cup Finals.

Here's a look at tonight's action!

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Islanders moneyline (+140): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

It's a pivotal Game 3 matchup tonight in Edmonton, with the Tampa Bay Lightning looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead against the New York Islanders.

Tampa could be without two of their top eight scorers when puck drops. Alex Killorn was suspended one game for boarding Brock Nelson in Game 2. While leading scorer Brayden Point's participation is questionable due to an awkward slide into the boards in Wednesday night's game. Point's absence could be a huge blow for the Lightning. Prior to Game 2, he had recorded at least a point in 13 of Tampa's 14 playoff games.

Another factor impacting Tampa's success is that they are prime negative regression candidates. The Bolts have won six straight, compiling a 1.084 PDO along the way and inflating their postseason PDO to 1.026 -- highest among remaining playoff teams. More concerning is the expected goals for metric. Over the six-game winning streak, the Lightning have been outpaced in expected goals for on three occasions. Additionally, expected goals for in two games were effectively 50.0%. So a span in which Tampa would have been lucky to win three games, they won all six and outscored their opponents 27-10. Regression is coming, and it won't be kind.

Conversely, metrics suggest that the New York Islanders are prime candidates for some positive regression. Shooting and save percentages have both dropped over their last five games to a pitiful 0.965 PDO. Although their PDO this postseason remains above average, expected goals for suggests that the Islanders should have more wins over their last five games than they actually do. New York has outpaced or tied their opponents in expected goals for in each of the last five games, yet have just one win to show for their efforts. It's unlikely that the losses will continue to pile up if the Isles continue to outplay their opponents.

These teams are on opposite ends of the regression-progression spectrum. Tampa has significantly overachieved in winning their last six, and the Islanders deserved better outcomes over their last five.

Our projections give the Lightning a 55.1% advantage in tonight's contest. However, the implied price of the Islanders moneyline wager, currently listed at +140, is 41.7%. That means that the market advantage rests with backing New York in this one. We rate the moneyline wager as a one-star play.