NHL Playoffs First Round Preview: Eastern Conference
Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins
The matchup between the Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators was one that was not decided until the final buzzer of the NHL's regular season, as positions were jostled between the final two spots, deciding who would face the Washington Capitals in round one. The lucky winner of that honor ended up being the Toronto Maple Leafs, leaving Ottawa and Boston to do battle in the second matchup in the Atlantic Division bracket.
The Bruins, like Montreal, have seen success since the appointment of a new bench boss, as Bruce Cassidy has lead Boston to an 18-8-1 record since February 7. This performance, which came after a rather weak start to the new year, is heavily in part of the performance of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, who scored 39 and 34 goals, respectively, for the B's this season.
Alongside these two standout performances, we saw, to no surprise, above-average play from Patrice Bergeron and excellent defensive prowess from young blue liners Torey Krug and Brandon Carlo.
The two defensemen, however, appear to be out for Game 1 at Canadian Tire Center.
The Senators can credit their success this season mostly in part to Norris trophy front runner Erik Karlsson, who has electrified the league with 71 points, finishing third to only Tampa Bay's Victor Hedma, and San Jose's Brent Burns.
Aside from Karlsson, we saw real team-oriented efforts from that of Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who were all key pieces to Ottawa's reaching of the playoffs in the 2014 campaign.
According to our metrics, Boston (0.24 nERD) is a much stronger squad, as the Senators (-0.03) find themselves with the second-lowest nERD rating of playoff teams. These metrics do not show true in the season series between the two teams, however, as Ottawa was able to post a perfect 4-0 record against Boston this season.
Our algorithms, despite the results of the four matchups between Boston and Ottawa this season, have given the advantage in this series to the Bruins at a series-winning probability of 56.47%.
