NHL Playoffs First Round Preview: Eastern Conference
Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Rangers
In a rematch of 2014's conference final, we're lucky enough to receive a matchup between two of the league's best goaltenders in Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, and this will be the key to either team's success in round one.
The Montreal Canadiens are playing well since the hiring of former Boston Bruins head coach Claude Julien, posting a 16-7-1 record since February 14, making them the best team in the league in that period.
Surprisingly enough, the major strengths of the Canadiens, that being captain Max Pacioretty, long range bomber Shea Weber, and deadly sniper Alexander Radulov, have not been the only reasons leading to Montreal's success.
The real surprise here is the benefit coming from Montreal's newfound gritty playing style, led by deadline acquisitions Steve Ott, Andrew Shaw, and Dwight King. These acquisitions give us a credit to Montreal's nERD metric of 0.24, which illustrates that the Canadiens should defeat an average opponent by 0.24 goals on neutral ice.
The New York Rangers, on the complete other side of the coin, have played rather mediocrely over the same period of time, posting a record of 11-10-5 and experiencing a month long period where they could not string together a win at Madison Square Garden.
This, however, does not discredit the fact that the Rangers are the best road performing team in the entire NHL and have exercised the demons they once had in the Bell Centre in years prior.
The season series between the two teams saw Montreal taking all three matchups, two of which ended in one-goal differentials and the last being a rather dominating Canadiens' victory. Despite these results, we aren't completely discrediting the Rangers' opportunity for success in this preliminary playoff matchup.
For the Rangers to be successful in this series, aside from the play of Lundqvist, which is crucial, we will need to see forwards like Mika Zibanejad, Rick Nash, and Kevin Hayes playing to their full potential, as well as fewer defensive lapses from a rather weak Rangers back six, anchored by Ryan McDonagh, Brady Skjei, and Brendan Smith as of late.
Our metrics have the Rangers ranked fifth with a nERD score of 0.42, which shows that -- when they play well -- they have the potential to be dangerous.
Our algorithms have given the slight advantage in this series to the New York Rangers, leaving their probability to advance at 53.73%. That's a tight margin, but given the depth of their best lineup, the math leads in their favor.
