Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 10
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
25+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyler Murray | $8,800 | 23.6 | 2.68 | 18.6 | 28.7 | 43.6% | 1.67 |
Josh Allen | $8,700 | 22.9 | 2.64 | 17.9 | 28.2 | 39.8% | 1.44 |
Russell Wilson | $8,900 | 21.5 | 2.41 | 16.2 | 27.0 | 34.2% | 0.84 |
Deshaun Watson | $8,300 | 20.3 | 2.45 | 15.7 | 26.3 | 29.0% | 1.01 |
Aaron Rodgers | $8,400 | 19.7 | 2.34 | 14.3 | 24.7 | 24.2% | 0.63 |
Justin Herbert | $8,000 | 19.5 | 2.44 | 13.6 | 24.6 | 23.8% | 0.81 |
Jared Goff | $7,400 | 18.6 | 2.52 | 13.4 | 24.1 | 22.0% | 1.04 |
Drew Brees | $7,600 | 18.6 | 2.44 | 13.9 | 24.3 | 22.2% | 0.99 |
Matthew Stafford | $7,300 | 18.4 | 2.52 | 12.6 | 23.6 | 18.8% | 1.04 |
Tom Brady | $7,800 | 18.1 | 2.32 | 12.7 | 23.4 | 19.3% | 0.69 |
Derek Carr | $6,900 | 18.0 | 2.60 | 12.8 | 23.8 | 20.3% | 1.24 |
Teddy Bridgewater | $7,000 | 17.8 | 2.55 | 12.3 | 22.8 | 16.4% | 1.03 |
Tua Tagovailoa | $6,800 | 17.5 | 2.57 | 11.7 | 22.1 | 15.7% | 1.03 |
Carson Wentz | $7,500 | 17.1 | 2.28 | 12.2 | 21.9 | 15.1% | 0.56 |
Joe Burrow | $7,200 | 16.8 | 2.34 | 11.6 | 21.7 | 13.4% | 0.68 |
Drew Lock | $7,100 | 16.8 | 2.36 | 11.2 | 22.5 | 16.1% | 0.77 |
Ben Roethlisberger | $7,400 | 16.7 | 2.26 | 12.0 | 22.4 | 16.5% | 0.67 |
Daniel Jones | $6,700 | 15.8 | 2.36 | 11.0 | 20.6 | 10.5% | 0.76 |
Baker Mayfield | $7,000 | 15.6 | 2.22 | 10.4 | 21.4 | 12.7% | 0.66 |
Alex Smith | $6,500 | 15.5 | 2.38 | 10.1 | 20.8 | 10.2% | 0.78 |
Nick Mullens | $6,600 | 15.5 | 2.35 | 10.2 | 20.5 | 10.7% | 0.73 |
Jake Luton | $6,700 | 14.0 | 2.09 | 9.2 | 18.8 | 7.5% | 0.43 |
Observations:
Ah, we know the drill by now, right? The high-salaried quarterbacks this year have had the best median outcomes and ceilings just about every week. We should expect that, yes, but in years past, matchups for lower-salaried plays were more enticing. The historical range of outcomes still say to trust the studs, especially when they're in good spots. The matchup between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen is around 25.6% likely to feature the main slate's QB1.
The important thing to keep in mind is that there is rarely significant leverage at the quarterback position. Since 2016, only 22 quarterbacks have been rostered on at least 20% of Sunday Million lineups on FanDuel, less than 0.3 per week. That said, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson are very close to Murray's and Allen's projected ranges and are the best places to swap.
Now, if looking to save salary, three quarterbacks pop: Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford, all between $7,300 and $7,600. They all have 75th-percentiles of at least 23.6 points would help with salary relief. Tom Brady is also a fun bounce-back candidate.
Derek Carr is once again a good per-dollar value but generally is not that appealing to me due to ceiling.
Running Back
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alvin Kamara | $9,000 | 19.7 | 2.19 | 13.9 | 25.4 | 48.5% | 2.54 |
Aaron Jones | $8,800 | 19.6 | 2.23 | 13.6 | 24.7 | 48.1% | 2.52 |
Josh Jacobs | $7,500 | 15.5 | 2.06 | 9.5 | 21.2 | 30.1% | 1.72 |
James Conner | $7,600 | 15.4 | 2.02 | 10.4 | 20.6 | 27.9% | 1.68 |
Miles Sanders | $7,700 | 15.2 | 1.98 | 9.8 | 21.1 | 29.8% | 1.51 |
James Robinson | $7,300 | 15.0 | 2.05 | 9.4 | 20.6 | 27.4% | 1.65 |
Nick Chubb | $8,200 | 13.5 | 1.65 | 8.7 | 19.0 | 20.5% | 0.84 |
Giovani Bernard | $6,200 | 13.2 | 2.13 | 7.8 | 18.0 | 17.7% | 1.71 |
Mike Davis | $5,400 | 12.4 | 2.31 | 7.2 | 17.7 | 16.7% | 2.05 |
D'Andre Swift | $6,000 | 12.3 | 2.04 | 7.1 | 16.8 | 12.2% | 1.60 |
Antonio Gibson | $6,100 | 12.1 | 1.98 | 6.9 | 17.0 | 14.8% | 1.41 |
Chase Edmonds | $7,100 | 12.1 | 1.70 | 7.0 | 17.4 | 15.9% | 0.90 |
Leonard Fournette | $6,400 | 11.5 | 1.79 | 6.5 | 15.9 | 10.1% | 1.02 |
Kareem Hunt | $7,500 | 11.3 | 1.50 | 6.4 | 16.3 | 11.2% | 0.60 |
Ronald Jones | $6,400 | 11.2 | 1.74 | 6.5 | 15.9 | 12.5% | 1.00 |
Melvin Gordon | $6,600 | 10.7 | 1.62 | 5.7 | 15.5 | 8.8% | 0.77 |
Jerick McKinnon | $5,500 | 10.6 | 1.93 | 6.0 | 15.5 | 8.9% | 1.33 |
Darrell Henderson | $5,800 | 10.1 | 1.74 | 4.9 | 15.2 | 9.5% | 1.00 |
Jamaal Williams | $5,600 | 9.0 | 1.60 | 4.8 | 13.3 | 3.8% | 0.80 |
Devin Singletary | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.58 | 4.7 | 12.9 | 2.7% | 0.75 |
Duke Johnson | $5,800 | 8.0 | 1.37 | 4.3 | 12.1 | 1.9% | 0.53 |
Matt Breida | $4,600 | 7.8 | 1.69 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 1.2% | 0.92 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,300 | 7.7 | 1.45 | 4.0 | 11.4 | 1.8% | 0.59 |
Phillip Lindsay | $5,900 | 7.6 | 1.29 | 3.8 | 11.4 | 1.6% | 0.38 |
Latavius Murray | $5,000 | 7.4 | 1.47 | 3.9 | 10.5 | 0.4% | 0.54 |
Joshua Kelley | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.41 | 3.9 | 10.7 | 0.6% | 0.51 |
Malcolm Brown | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.32 | 3.8 | 10.7 | 0.3% | 0.41 |
Chris Carson | $7,800 | 7.2 | 0.93 | 3.6 | 10.7 | 1.0% | 0.06 |
Adrian Peterson | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.33 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 1.1% | 0.45 |
David Johnson | $6,300 | 6.8 | 1.08 | 3.4 | 9.9 | 0.7% | 0.15 |
Kenyan Drake | $6,000 | 6.7 | 1.12 | 3.5 | 10.5 | 0.4% | 0.25 |
Wayne Gallman | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.17 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 0.3% | 0.28 |
Jordan Howard | $5,200 | 6.6 | 1.28 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 0.8% | 0.41 |
Zack Moss | $5,800 | 6.5 | 1.12 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 0.3% | 0.22 |
Kalen Ballage | $5,300 | 6.3 | 1.18 | 3.3 | 9.4 | 0.1% | 0.27 |
JaMycal Hasty | $5,100 | 6.0 | 1.17 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 0.1% | 0.27 |
Troymaine Pope | $4,500 | 5.8 | 1.30 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 0.0% | 0.46 |
Travis Homer | $5,300 | 5.6 | 1.06 | 2.7 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
Observations:
We have two core plays at running back with Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones, and yes, I said core plays. The value at running back is appealing, but check out the odds that those backs get to 20 FanDuel points. Kamara (48.5%) and Jones (48.1%) are close to coin flips. No back below $7,000 is even 18.0% likely to do that. It's just pretty impossible to match the ceilings from feature backs such as Kamara and Jones.
The projections rate Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, James Conner, and James Robinson similarly, but the standout is Sanders, given the anticipated workload. Jacobs burned us last week but isn't on the injury report this week after being a mid-week addition for Week 9. I won't roster James Conner as a favorite and am more inclined to trust the snap rate and workload of James Robinson even as an underdog.
Then we get to the value backs: Giovani Bernard, Mike Davis, Antonio Gibson, Ronald Jones, D'Andre Swift, Darrell Henderson, and Jerick McKinnon. The list is long, but they all have similar issues: they aren't three-down backs. The one who is (Davis) faces the stone worst matchup possible with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Davis trended downward toward the end of his stint as the Carolina Panthers' starter.
Kamara, Jones, and Sanders still deserve to be in the majority of lineups this week in some form or fashion.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davante Adams | $9,500 | 17.6 | 1.85 | 12.7 | 22.5 | 35.4% | 1.31 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $8,600 | 17.1 | 1.99 | 13.0 | 21.3 | 32.9% | 2.07 |
Michael Thomas | $8,500 | 16.1 | 1.89 | 11.6 | 20.2 | 26.2% | 1.40 |
Stefon Diggs | $7,900 | 15.5 | 1.96 | 8.6 | 21.4 | 30.1% | 1.39 |
D.K. Metcalf | $8,300 | 15.1 | 1.82 | 8.9 | 21.6 | 30.0% | 1.13 |
Keenan Allen | $7,800 | 14.7 | 1.88 | 9.9 | 19.0 | 20.8% | 1.27 |
Cooper Kupp | $7,700 | 14.4 | 1.86 | 10.1 | 19.1 | 21.6% | 1.29 |
Terry McLaurin | $7,000 | 14.2 | 2.02 | 9.2 | 19.5 | 22.9% | 1.65 |
Robert Woods | $7,200 | 14.1 | 1.96 | 9.7 | 18.5 | 19.0% | 1.52 |
Tyler Lockett | $7,400 | 13.7 | 1.85 | 7.2 | 20.2 | 25.5% | 1.10 |
Robby Anderson | $6,400 | 12.7 | 1.98 | 7.2 | 18.6 | 19.5% | 1.39 |
Curtis Samuel | $5,700 | 12.0 | 2.11 | 6.9 | 16.2 | 9.7% | 1.63 |
DeVante Parker | $6,000 | 11.8 | 1.96 | 5.5 | 16.8 | 14.1% | 1.28 |
Jerry Jeudy | $5,800 | 11.8 | 2.03 | 5.2 | 18.1 | 18.8% | 1.38 |
Will Fuller | $7,100 | 11.7 | 1.65 | 5.1 | 18.2 | 20.0% | 0.89 |
Tyler Boyd | $6,700 | 11.5 | 1.71 | 6.9 | 15.7 | 9.6% | 0.90 |
D.J. Moore | $6,900 | 11.4 | 1.66 | 5.2 | 18.2 | 18.4% | 0.86 |
Chris Godwin | $7,500 | 11.1 | 1.48 | 6.9 | 15.4 | 8.2% | 0.52 |
Mike Williams | $5,900 | 11.1 | 1.87 | 4.5 | 17.2 | 16.6% | 1.11 |
Brandin Cooks | $6,300 | 10.8 | 1.71 | 5.4 | 15.7 | 10.7% | 0.90 |
Tee Higgins | $6,100 | 10.7 | 1.75 | 4.5 | 16.3 | 15.0% | 0.99 |
Marvin Jones | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.70 | 5.1 | 14.9 | 8.2% | 0.88 |
Travis Fulgham | $6,800 | 10.3 | 1.51 | 4.3 | 16.8 | 16.2% | 0.75 |
Diontae Johnson | $5,700 | 10.2 | 1.78 | 5.5 | 13.9 | 6.2% | 1.01 |
D.J. Chark | $6,600 | 10.1 | 1.54 | 4.6 | 16.1 | 15.5% | 0.76 |
Jarvis Landry | $6,000 | 10.0 | 1.66 | 5.5 | 14.3 | 6.6% | 0.86 |
Brandon Aiyuk | $6,500 | 9.9 | 1.52 | 4.7 | 14.9 | 9.0% | 0.67 |
Antonio Brown | $6,500 | 9.8 | 1.51 | 3.4 | 15.9 | 11.9% | 0.73 |
Chase Claypool | $6,100 | 9.6 | 1.57 | 3.3 | 16.2 | 13.4% | 0.81 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,400 | 9.6 | 1.49 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 5.5% | 0.60 |
Darius Slayton | $5,900 | 9.2 | 1.56 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 10.3% | 0.77 |
Tim Patrick | $5,500 | 9.1 | 1.65 | 3.5 | 14.8 | 11.6% | 0.92 |
Mike Evans | $7,300 | 9.0 | 1.23 | 3.9 | 13.4 | 6.5% | 0.32 |
Christian Kirk | $6,300 | 8.9 | 1.42 | 3.3 | 14.6 | 9.8% | 0.65 |
Cole Beasley | $5,400 | 8.9 | 1.64 | 4.6 | 13.1 | 3.1% | 0.79 |
Sterling Shepard | $5,500 | 8.7 | 1.58 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 2.9% | 0.76 |
Danny Amendola | $5,200 | 8.7 | 1.67 | 4.3 | 12.5 | 2.4% | 0.86 |
John Brown | $5,600 | 8.4 | 1.50 | 2.9 | 14.4 | 8.6% | 0.76 |
A.J. Green | $5,600 | 8.1 | 1.45 | 2.7 | 13.1 | 6.7% | 0.66 |
Randall Cobb | $5,100 | 8.1 | 1.58 | 4.7 | 11.6 | 1.9% | 0.71 |
Emmanuel Sanders | $5,800 | 8.0 | 1.37 | 4.3 | 11.9 | 0.9% | 0.48 |
Richie James | $5,400 | 7.8 | 1.45 | 3.1 | 11.8 | 3.4% | 0.60 |
Hunter Renfrow | $4,900 | 7.8 | 1.59 | 3.0 | 12.1 | 4.1% | 0.81 |
Henry Ruggs | $5,600 | 7.4 | 1.32 | 1.7 | 13.2 | 6.1% | 0.59 |
Laviska Shenault | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.40 | 3.6 | 11.0 | 0.8% | 0.53 |
Jakeem Grant | $4,600 | 7.3 | 1.58 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 0.9% | 0.75 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $5,000 | 7.1 | 1.43 | 3.9 | 10.8 | 0.8% | 0.55 |
Jalen Reagor | $5,600 | 7.1 | 1.27 | 2.2 | 11.8 | 4.1% | 0.50 |
Kenny Golladay | $7,000 | 6.6 | 0.95 | 2.0 | 12.1 | 3.7% | 0.27 |
Josh Reynolds | $5,000 | 6.5 | 1.29 | 1.8 | 10.9 | 1.7% | 0.51 |
Keelan Cole | $5,100 | 6.3 | 1.24 | 1.8 | 11.4 | 2.6% | 0.51 |
Nelson Agholor | $5,100 | 6.3 | 1.23 | 1.5 | 11.2 | 1.9% | 0.52 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.13 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 2.9% | 0.39 |
Rashard Higgins | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.13 | 1.8 | 10.2 | 1.7% | 0.33 |
Observations:
We'll have to key in on how the trend goes by Sunday. There are a ton of value backs who are in play, so the high-salaried receivers are attainable. That being said, the priority for me would be the high-salaried running backs. (Remember that Kamara and Jones are just under 50.0% likely to hit 20 FanDuel points; no receiver is above a 35.4% chance. We just know from a huge sample that the better FanDuel investment is the running backs.)
The best floor/ceiling ratings belong to DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Robert Woods, none of whom I love personally, but I'm just here to let you know what the data says. I'd rather shift to Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, DeVante Parker, Brandin Cooks, and John Brown.
Tight End
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
15+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren Waller | $7,000 | 12.5 | 1.79 | 7.9 | 17.2 | 35.1% | 1.09 |
Evan Engram | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.60 | 4.7 | 13.0 | 14.8% | 0.78 |
T.J. Hockenson | $6,200 | 8.8 | 1.42 | 5.1 | 12.2 | 15.3% | 0.45 |
Dallas Goedert | $5,800 | 8.7 | 1.50 | 4.8 | 12.6 | 14.1% | 0.61 |
Austin Hooper | $5,100 | 8.4 | 1.65 | 4.3 | 12.5 | 15.5% | 0.88 |
Noah Fant | $5,700 | 7.9 | 1.38 | 3.7 | 12.3 | 12.7% | 0.53 |
Rob Gronkowski | $6,100 | 7.8 | 1.28 | 3.8 | 11.9 | 12.1% | 0.40 |
Hunter Henry | $5,500 | 7.4 | 1.34 | 3.6 | 11.6 | 9.8% | 0.50 |
Eric Ebron | $5,400 | 7.1 | 1.31 | 3.6 | 10.7 | 7.4% | 0.42 |
Jordan Reed | $5,000 | 6.8 | 1.37 | 3.5 | 10.3 | 6.4% | 0.49 |
Jared Cook | $6,000 | 6.5 | 1.08 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 5.3% | 0.21 |
Mike Gesicki | $5,300 | 6.4 | 1.21 | 2.1 | 10.9 | 9.9% | 0.45 |
Logan Thomas | $4,900 | 6.4 | 1.30 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 5.6% | 0.42 |
Robert Tonyan | $5,700 | 6.0 | 1.05 | 2.8 | 9.3 | 3.8% | 0.20 |
Tyler Higbee | $5,200 | 5.7 | 1.10 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 3.0% | 0.28 |
Tyler Eifert | $4,600 | 5.5 | 1.19 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 1.7% | 0.32 |
Greg Olsen | $4,600 | 5.4 | 1.18 | 2.3 | 8.2 | 0.6% | 0.27 |
Jordan Akins | $4,900 | 5.3 | 1.08 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 1.9% | 0.23 |
Harrison Bryant | $4,800 | 4.8 | 1.01 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 1.1% | 0.18 |
Gerald Everett | $4,500 | 4.7 | 1.05 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 0.4% | 0.23 |
Darren Fells | $5,000 | 4.4 | 0.88 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 0.1% | 0.08 |
David Njoku | $4,800 | 4.1 | 0.86 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 0.1% | 0.05 |
Dawson Knox | $4,500 | 4.1 | 0.91 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
Drew Sample | $4,400 | 4.0 | 0.91 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 0.1% | 0.12 |
Observations:
Darren Waller is the lone stud tight end on the main slate but has a salary of $7,000, a number that puts him out of priority territory given the state of quarterback, receiver, and running back.
The more appealing value comes from the more reasonable $5,000 range: Austin Hooper without Odell Beckham, Evan Engram with a recent resurgence, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, and even Mike Gesicki.