Fantasy Football: Zachariason's Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

I change my opinion when I get new information. Growing up, I thought Goldeneye was the best first-person shooter in the video game world. And then Perfect Dark came out, and it was literally just a better version of Goldeneye. My opinion changed: Perfect Dark took the top spot in my rankings. (Don't even try to argue with me about this.)

The same logic applies to fantasy football rookie rankings. Those rankings will change with new information. With the NFL Draft still to come, there's a huge piece of information missing in rookie evaluation. Where are these rookies going to land? Where will they be drafted? Will they be drafted at all?

Those questions will be answered soon enough. Until then, enjoy the Goldeneye edition of this year's rookie rankings.

1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 1

Most scouts don't see Jonathan Taylor as an Ezekiel Elliott-type back, but there's reason to believe he can make that type of impact in the NFL. Statistically, the two look very similar within my prospect model (you can read more about that model, if you'd like), which looks at final-season touchdown share (46.4% for Taylor, 39.7% for Zeke), reception share (Taylor was at 10.6%, Elliott 13.3%), and yards per team play (2.36, 2.27) to help determine a "stat score". It also factors in size and speed, and Taylor wins out there with his 99th percentile Speed Score (weight-adjusted 40-yard dash time). Landing spot matters more at running back than wide receiver, but if things look good on that end post-draft, Taylor will easily remain at the top of these rankings.

2. D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 1

There's a decent chance we see D'Andre Swift get selected before Jonathan Taylor later this month, and if that draft slot is in the first round, then we should expect big things from Swift in fantasy football. Since 2010, we've seen 15 running backs get selected in the first round. Of those 15 players, just 3 failed to compile at least one season with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Two of those players had their careers ended early due to injury (David Wilson and Jahvid Best), while the third is Rashaad Penny, who's only played two years in the league. And even though Swift's numbers are lacking a bit -- Georgia didn't always utilize him heavily in games that didn't matter for them -- they do match up well to Miles Sanders, his top comp within my model. He's a really good prospect who should produce at the next level.

3. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 2

A week ago, CeeDee Lamb was my top receiver in the class. Today, clearly, it's Jerry Jeudy. And it'll likely stay that way. The thought is that Lamb is the better prospect analytically, but I'm not sure I completely agree with that. My prospect model (check out more on the wide receiver model here) looks at three main production-related metrics: best-season receptions per game, best-season yards per team pass attempt, and best-season touchdown share. Lamb wins out in two of those three metrics compared to Jeudy, and he does so by a good margin. But there's more to the model than those production metrics -- plus Jeudy's numbers are by no means bad. And the thing is, my model also factors in competition, both at the team level and the player level. Jeudy played in a tougher conference with studly talent at Alabama, which gives his numbers more context. You can't go wrong with either player, but I'm using my model as the tiebreaker between Jeudy and Lamb, giving Jeudy the slight edge.

4. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 2

To add to the block of text above, one of the reasons to push Lamb below Jeudy is the difficulty in finding a good comparable. For Jeudy, my model immediately spit out Stefon Diggs as the top comp. The two matched up well in a lot of categories. For Lamb, it was hard to find a player who was as lean as he is (under 200 pounds) with the type of production he had at Oklahoma. Regardless, he's got a very strong profile and should be a first-round pick. If he ends up getting selected in the 20 to 25 range, he'll be a 95th percentile wide receiver in my model. That's better than any wide receiver from last year's class.

5. Cam Akers, RB, Florida State

Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 3

There's a trio of backs in Tier 3 who can, admittedly, be ranked in any order. Landing spot is going to determine how things look after the draft is over. For now, Akers is at the top of the tier. Maybe that's a surprise to some, but Akers looks like a pretty safe bet. He had a reception share of almost 11% during his final collegiate season, his yards per team play was well above average compared to other backs in the class, and his size-speed combo -- he ran a sub-4.5 40-yard dash at 217 pounds -- looks better than the other two players in this tier. Some may knock his sort of uninspiring production in college, but within the context of his team, he was very effective.

6. JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

Positional Rank: 4
Tier: 3

Just to reiterate, Dobbins could be fifth -- or even higher -- on this list after the draft. For now, his ranking is a reflection of a very productive and efficient college running back who weighed in at the combine under 210 pounds. Hopefully teams don't see the weight as a problem, but it's enough for me to say, "Since Akers and Dobbins are close, let's just put Akers ahead of him since he's got a more traditional three-down back build." It doesn't help that we don't have athletic testing for Dobbins, but he's a really good back. My model sees yards per team play as the most predictive production-related statistic, and Dobbins ranked second within the metric last year behind only the aforementioned Jonathan Taylor. Don't be shocked if he jumps Akers post-draft.

7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Louisiana State

Positional Rank: 5
Tier: 3

Edwards-Helaire fits the mold of a back who works well in today's NFL. Among all of the runners who were invited to the combine, CEH was third in final-season reception share, an impressive feat given he was playing on the best team in the country. He's a near lock to be heavily involved as a pass-catcher in the NFL, but there will be some question marks as to how much of an early-down role he can carve out at 5'7'', 207 pounds.

8. Jalen Reagor, WR, Texas Christian

Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 4

If you look only at Jalen Reagor's 2019 production, you'd probably say to yourself, "How in the world is this guy eighth on an analytical scout's rookie rankings list?" Well, it's because there's more to his profile than what he did during his Junior season. Texas Christian was awful offensively last year, and that explains Reagor's lack of raw production. It's somewhat of a red flag that his market share numbers were also down, but according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), "only 30.7% of Reagor’s targets in 2019 were charted as accurate. Only three other FBS receivers had it worse this past season." My model is more predictive at the wide receiver position when looking at a player's "best" season in the major production categories, and from that lens, Reagor has a top-six stat score. Combined with his versatility to play all over the field and his experience in the return game, Reagor's a high-upside prospect.

9. Justin Jefferson, WR, Louisiana State

Positional Rank: 4
Tier: 4

Justin Jefferson seems like a safer option than Reagor but potentially without the same type of upside. Per PFF, no player had more receptions and receiving yards from the slot last season, which makes sense considering Jefferson lined up out wide on just 5 of his 937 snaps. He was super productive in an elite offense, a sign that he's talented. Among the group of wideouts that went to the combine, Jefferson's best season numbers saw him rank in the top-10 in both receptions per game and yards per team pass attempt, two of the three production-related inputs in my model. He should be a great slot wideout in the NFL.

10. Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Positional Rank: 5
Tier: 4

After slaying the combine, Denzel Mims has been rising up draft boards. Usually, I'd be one to stay away -- the combine isn't that big of a deal at the wide receiver position. But Mims not only annihilated the athletic testing, he's got a pretty strong analytical and production profile to back it all up. He broke out before turning 20, he caught half of Baylor's touchdowns last year, and his best season by yards per team pass attempt ranked above average versus the rest of the class. The fact that he wasn't an early declare is the one piece that's a little concerning.

11. Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado

Positional Rank: 6
Tier: 4

Laviska Shenault is a wide receiver in a running back's body. He's what the kids call #thicc, coming in at 6'1'', 227 pounds. Like the aforementioned Jalen Reagor, Shenault saw his production dip during his final collegiate season, and that's kind of an issue. But some of that could be the result of Colorado using him out wide more in 2019 -- he wasn't snagging those easier-to-process slot targets. Per PFF, Shenault lined up in the slot on a little over 14% of his snaps last year, when that number was 40% in 2018. Even still, because my model looks at "best" season within the major production metrics at wide receiver, Shenault's looking good, ranking in the top-five in overall stat score. Like A.J. Brown last season, Shenault should do big things in the yards after catch department in the NFL.

12. Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

Positional Rank: 7
Tier: 4

Higgins, to me, is the best bigger-bodied wideout in this class, coming in at 6'4'', 216 pounds. His production profile isn't flawless, but he got better as each season passed at Clemson. And he broke out as a Sophomore, giving him an elite breakout age. A concern with Higgins is that it's hard to find a comparison for him. Finding a player with his production (which is relatively average in my model) to go along with a strong breakout age and great size is tough. That could be looked at as a good thing, but it also means some volatility in evaluation when looking at him analytically.

13. Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Positional Rank: 8
Tier: 4

There's a very real chance Henry Ruggs is the first wide receiver drafted later this month. If that's the case, does this ranking make any sense? Clearly, in my nerdy opinion, Ruggs isn't as good as some scouts seem to think. Actually, that's not a fair statement. Ruggs is good and should make an impact in the NFL with his 4.27 speed. There's just a chance it doesn't show up in the stat sheet like we'd traditionally see from a top-end wide receiver. It's true that Ruggs had a lot of competition to deal with at Alabama, but he still wasn't all that productive, even when you give his numbers that context. In fact, according to my model, Ruggs' stat score ranks in the bottom half of the class. It's a negative number, which means it's below average compared to all relevant wideouts over the last 15 or so years. Is that a death sentence? Well, among all first-round wideouts since 2006, nine of them had negative stat scores. Of those nine, none would be considered fantasy football hits, with the best player in the group being Ted Ginn. That's the concern with Ruggs.

14. Zack Moss, RB, Utah

Positional Rank: 6
Tier: 4

Do I feel comfortable putting Zack Moss here at number 14? Not exactly. He was really productive at Utah, rushing for over 1,000 yards in three straight seasons while hitting a double-digit reception share in two of those campaigns. Based on his final-season numbers, he has a top-five stat score in my running back model. But, uh, he might be slow and not all that explosive? He ran an uninspiring 4.65 40-yard dash at the combine (albeit with a hamstring injury), and he's now giving off some David Montgomery vibes. There's nothing totally wrong with that, but that could limit Moss' upside at the next level. On the other hand, a very close comp to Moss is Kareem Hunt (both from a production and size-speed standpoint), so maybe he'll be just fine. Like most running backs, landing spot will go a long way for Moss.

15. Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

Positional Rank: 9
Tier: 5

My model likes Tyler Johnson more than any other wide receiver because he has a complete analytical profile. He had three years of strong production at Minnesota, giving him a high-end breakout age. He accounted for at least 40% of Minnesota's receptions in each of the last two seasons and, as a Sophomore, he caught 7 of Minnesota's 9 touchdown passes. His 2019 season saw him with one of the best yards per team pass attempt rates -- which is the most important statistic in the model -- that my database has seen. He didn't declare for the NFL Draft early, but, man, he's a numbers-driven analyst's dream. So why have him ranked ninth in this class at wide receiver pre-draft? Well, quite simply, my model cares (a lot) about draft capital. If a player gets drafted early, not only is that telling you that a team scouted him to be an early-round pick, but he may get more immediate opportunity, too. And Johnson, unfortunately, isn't being projected as a Day 1 or 2 pick right now. If he does fall to the later rounds, that'll impact his ranking after the draft is over.

16. Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

Positional Rank: 10
Tier: 5

Edwards has the best breakout age in the class after producing as a Freshman for South Carolina, and there's a lot to like about his profile. He wasn't as productive as Deebo Samuel when the two played together in 2018, but he wasn't far off, which is a good sign considering how well Samuel played during his rookie season in the NFL last year. As the clear top target in 2019, Edwards managed a 50.0% touchdown share to go along with the highest reception share of his career at 26.5%. His overall stat score isn't breathtaking in my model, but some of that likely has to do with how South Carolina used him. According to PFF's data, 36 of Edwards' 71 catches last year were on screens. That's a good thing in that they were clearly trying to get the ball in his hands, but you have to wonder if his game can translate to the NFL. After catching just four deep balls last season, will he be limited as a pro?

17. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt

Positional Rank: 7
Tier: 5

Ke'Shawn Vaughn's production profile is really impressive. He's got the second-best stat score in this year's class according to my model (sick of hearing about "my model" yet?), which, again, looks at final-season numbers at the running back position. He scored about 48% of Vanderbilt's touchdowns last year, hauled in nearly 14% of the team's receptions, and he had a yards per team play of 1.75, the fifth-best mark among backs who were invited to the combine. He came through with a solid weight-adjusted 40 time at the combine, too, so if draft capital is on his side, he should be a very solid second-round selection for running back-needy fantasy teams.

18. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

Positional Rank: 11
Tier: 5

You always have to be worried about a wide receiver who didn't declare early while also not posting a ton of production until his final college season. That's what you've got with Brandon Aiyuk of Arizona State. He transferred to ASU after playing two years of JUCO ball, and after a 33-catch Junior season, he went big in 2019, catching 65 passes for almost 1,200 yards. Because of that later-stage production (he was a Senior), he's entering the NFL with a mediocre breakout age. And we know breakout age is an important metric to look at with the wide receiver position. It's not all bad, though. Aiyuk has the 10th-best stat score in my model thanks to his final-season production, and it was considered an underperformance when he ran a 4.50 at the combine in February. Draft capital could end up being in his favor despite some of the red flags.

19. Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Positional Rank: 8
Tier: 5

No running back came close to Eno Benjamin's final-season reception share of 18%, making him a prime candidate to be a satellite back at the start of his NFL career. He weighed in at a heavier-than-expected 207 pounds at the combine after hitting 195 pounds at the Senior Bowl, though, so maybe he'll have more of an early-down role than anticipated. He's got one of the most well-rounded production profiles in my model, ranking first in reception share, seventh in touchdown share, and eighth in total yards per team play. Let's hope draft capital favors him.

20. Joe Burrow, QB, Louisiana State

Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 6

As is usually the case, in a single-quarterback league, you're generally taking a passer based on individual team need rather than the value of the position. Would I fault you for taking Burrow, the consensus top pick in this year's draft, ahead of the aforementioned Eno Benjamin? Not if you're working with like, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Philip Rivers at quarterback. Would I be taking him in the first round? No -- not in this class. But I do have Burrow as the top-ranked passer this year. There's a little worry about his age and the fact that he only had one good collegiate season, but if Burrow ends up in Cincinnati, he'll have a decent group of weapons. And he's proven to have some rushing upside with almost 800 ground-game yards over the last two seasons.

21. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Southern California

Positional Rank: 12
Tier: 6

Another big-bodied receiver to consider in rookie drafts is the 6'4'' Michael Pittman, who led USC with 101 receptions last year, his Senior season. The fact that he was still playing in college as a Senior doesn't give us the best signal (we want early declares), but he was also competing with strong talent for looks, like Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pittman's best rates in receptions per game and yards per team pass attempt place him as an above-average prospect in my model, and his size gives him a lot of upside.

22. KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

Positional Rank: 13
Tier: 6

We won't know how fast KJ Hamler really is (at least when it comes to straight-line speed) since he didn't run at the combine and his pro day was cancelled, but he did claim to have run a 4.27 in pre-combine testing, so, at the very least, we can probably label him as "fast". (OK, yeah, he's fast.) That speed combined with an above-average yards per team attempt rate is intriguing, but there are some concerns about his size, since he's under 180 pounds. We saw Marquise Brown make a splash last year with that type of profile, but Brown was also a more productive college wideout, and we still don't know how well he'll fill the stat sheet for fantasy purposes.

23. Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State

Positional Rank: 9
Tier: 6

Speed, versatility, and the potential to be a Day 2 pick is why Darrynton Evans is the best smaller-school back in this class. He ran a 4.41 at the combine, giving him a strong speed score at 203 pounds. And while at Appalachian State, Evans had 56 kickoff returns, including one for a touchdown. Anytime a player is used on special teams like that, it's a good sign. It's easy to see a Nyheim Hines-like path for Evans in the NFL.

24. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 6

There are plenty of question marks around the health of Tagovailoa, but he has the potential to be a very good pro. According to a study on statistically superior quarterbacks from numberFire's own Jim Sannes, Tua actually has the best analytical profile among all signal-callers in this class. What's most impressive about his numbers is that they didn't change much when faced with tough competition. Per Sannes' study, Tagovailoa's adjusted yards per attempt rate was still 12.1 against top-50 defenses.

25. Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Memphis

Positional Rank: N/A
Tier: 6

Antonio Gibson tested as a wide receiver at the combine, but there's a decent chance we see a team utilize him as a running back in the NFL. Hopefully he finds a creative offensive coordinator, because the dude can do some serious damage with the ball in his hands. He didn't see a ton of usage at Memphis, but he did it all, catching 38 passes, running the ball 33 times, and returning 23 kickoffs (one for a touchdown) in 2019. Those offensive touches resulted in 19.3 yards per reception and 11.2 yards per rush. How did he do it? Athleticism. Gibson's 6'0'', 228 pounds, and he ran a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at the combine. He's a high-upside prospect.

26. AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College

Positional Rank: 10
Tier: 6

Another size-speed freak in this class is AJ Dillon, who weighed in at 247 pounds at the combine. He ran a 4.53 40, which is impressive, but Dillon may be giving off Andre Williams vibes to some. Williams, if you recall, was a big back who also played ball at Boston College. And he was a bust in the NFL. Dillon's profile is a tad different, though, in that he actually had a receiving profile. While Williams didn't catch a single pass versus 355 attempts during his Senior season, Dillon, who's coming out as a Junior, had a more-than-reasonable 8.1% reception share last year. If he lands in the right spot, he'll shoot up these rankings post-draft.

27. Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame

Positional Rank: 14
Tier: 6

Chase Claypool was a huge combine winner after running a 4.42 40 at 238 pounds. He's the biggest wide receiver in the class, and there's been discussion about him even playing tight end in the NFL. His production profile isn't spectacular, but my prospect model has him as an above-average player even when ignoring his insane athletic ability. We did see an athletic Miles Boykin come out of Notre Dame last year and fail to produce, and that may be a little concerning for Claypool, but Claypool does have a more complete profile.

28. Gabriel Davis, WR, Central Florida

Positional Rank: 15
Tier: 7

It feels like Gabriel Davis isn't getting as much love from the fantasy community as he should. He's really got a strong résumé: he's an early declare, his athletic testing was fine, he ranks 11th in this class in best-season yards per team pass attempt, and he's got good size at 6'2'', 216 pounds. He got better and better as each college season passed, and hopefully that continues into the league, giving fantasy footballers a steal in rookie drafts.

29. Devin Duvernay, WR, Texas

Positional Rank: 16
Tier: 7

Pro Football Focus credited Duvernay with a slot snap rate of 97.4% in 2019, and it ended up being by far his most productive season at Texas. He caught 106 passes because the Longhorns were trying to get him the ball -- he ended up second in college football in screen passes caught. But he also caught 12 deep balls, showing off some versatility. The downside with Duvernay is that he broke out late, he's not an early declare, and he may be handcuffed to a slot role in the NFL. He could be pretty good at that, though.

30. Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland

Positional Rank: 11
Tier: 7

McFarland's production was lacking in college, but he was sharing a backfield with another 2020 draft hopeful, Javon Leake. McFarland's the more interesting back because he only played two seasons in college, and he bested Leake in both rush attempts and receptions despite playing one fewer game. He then ran a 4.44 at the combine, giving him a weight-adjusted 40 that ranks in the 86th percentile. He's likely not going to have great draft capital behind him, but he won't be a bad dart throw after the second round of rookie drafts.