Fantasy Football's Most Underrated Players at Each Position

Running Back: Giovani Bernard

The last time Giovani Bernard finished a season outside the top-20 at the running back position in PPR leagues was never. So far this year, folks are drafting him at RB25 within the format.

That's just the cliff notes version as to why the dude is undervalued.

A huge reason folks aren't into Bernard is because of teammate Jeremy Hill and his tendency to score touchdowns. That limits Bernard's ceiling, no doubt, but the floor is certainly there -- last year, only seven running backs finished with more top-24 performances in PPR leagues. And that's a season where Bernard scored a total of -- wait for it -- two touchdowns.

He should have scored more.

If you compare rushing yards to touchdowns among backs last year and run a quick regression analysis, it says that Bernard's touchdown total should have been closer to five rather than two. The difference in touchdowns -- it was 2.87 -- was the eighth-highest difference in the NFL.

Hill, meanwhile, saw a touchdowns scored versus expected touchdowns difference of -5.69. That was the highest in the league.

This is obviously due to the roles these two backs have, as Hill was third in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line with 16 while Bernard had just 4. But it won't be very difficult for Gio to score more than the two touchdowns he had in 2015 -- a year where he, again, was one of the highest floor backs in the league.

And there's also the upside that the team has fewer passing weapons after losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. That may end up increasing Bernard's percentage of team targets -- even without factoring in Tyler Eifert's injury, which may sideline him for the start of the regular season, or more negative game scripts for Cincinnati -- upping his overall PPR projection.

Really, you're drafting Bernard at his floor as long as he stays healthy. At his current average draft cost, you may actually be drafting him below his floor.