5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Buffalo Bills Rushing Offense
In general, I'm not a huge advocate of using running backs who are playing on the road. There's a larger chance that game flow gets messed up, squeezing them out of the game plan and leaving you sobbing in the shower for the entire fourth quarter. I've just found it to be safer to roster running backs who are at home.
That presents a slight problem this week. A good chunk of the league's worst rush defenses are playing at home, meaning potentially juicy matchups have an extra element of risk added in. This isn't to say that they are bad plays, but it does at least make me a bit more nervous.
There is one nice little exception to this. That would be the Houston Texans, who head out on the road to face the Buffalo Bills. The Texans haven't been abominable by any means, ranking 21st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but they also haven't been great. That's where the Bills' offense comes into play.
Despite dealing with injuries to both of their top backs, the Bills still sit fourth in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. With Karlos Williams possibly out dealing with a shoulder injury, this could be a nice feature game for LeSean McCoy.
McCoy hasn't been as efficient as Williams this year, but he has been adequate. He's currently 14th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 39 backs with at least 90 carries and 10th in Rushing Success Rate. This has resulted in his having a decent floor, topping 11 FanDuel points in each of his pat six games and finishing below 15 only once in that span. Taking Williams out of the picture would only further solidify that floor.
Houston's defense has certainly been improving of late, but that doesn't mean they've been able to limit the opposing team's running back fully, especially through the air. In each of the past three games, they have allowed a running back to record at least 5 receptions for 43 yards. McCoy has 20 targets over his past three games. Part of this exploitation through the air is due to game script, but McCoy could be able to net you some points on receptions, as well.
The other aspect with McCoy is that it seems unlikely he'll have high ownership this week. With all of the low-cost running backs available (waddup, David Johnson?), it could end up where all of the higher-priced guys go overlooked. If they do pay up, it might be on Adrian Peterson given his recent run. McCoy is in a good spot to slip under the radar. With his floor and potential upside, that's a good thing for our purposes.
