6 Bold Predictions About the 2015 Fantasy Football Season
David Johnson Will Outscore Andre Ellington
Maybe I'm just an Andre Ellington hater, but we're supposed to be bold here, right? And what's bolder than saying a backup running back will outperform the guy in front of him on the depth chart?
I mentioned all of this before in our 7 Late-Round Running Backs to Target article earlier in the month: we have a two-year NFL sample of Ellington. He was supremely efficient in one of them, and he was dreadful in the other.
Will the real Andre Ellington please stand up?
Here's the deal. Ellington's 2013 -- his rookie year -- was supremely efficient, as he averaged 0.06 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per rush. That was one of the highest marks in the NFL among relevant rushers. Last year, though, this number dropped to -0.14, the worst among backs with 200 or more carries.
Was this due to his foot injury? Maybe. But I have a hard time thinking a foot injury alone forced his efficiency to drop so much. What really could be the case is that, in addition to the injury, as a 5'9'', 210-pound back who's never really carried the load even dating back to college, Ellington just isn't a bruiser.
Enter David Johnson, who's been compared to Ellington given his abilities as a pass-catcher out of the backfield and his tendency to dance around at the line of scrimmage. However, Johnson's also faster (4.40 40-yard dash versus Ellington's 4.61), bigger (6'1'', 225 pounds) and hasn't proven to avoid contact at the NFL level.
I certainly think Johnson is the smarter bet given average draft position. But if I'm being bold -- and I have to be here, given what this article is about -- I think there's a chance David Johnson is just flat-out the better option this year in fantasy football.
