3 Quarterbacks Who Can Get to the Next Level This Year

Tony Romo

I know what you’re thinking: “Next Step? Tony Romo is already really good.” Yes that’s true. When I talk about the next step from Romo I mean a top-five, possibly even a top-three season in terms of NEP, normal statistical output and fantasy football.

Since 2011, the best finish Romo has had, according to ProFootballReference.com, is seventh, with an average finish of about ninth in that span. He’s the ninth ranked fantasy quarterback right now according to the consensus rankings on FantasyPros.com, he’s numberFire’s ninth-ranked quarterback, and he has an Average Draft Position (ADP) as the ninth quarterback off the board according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Oh, he also wears the number nine in case you were wondering.

I believe Romo is primed for a year to break through that barrier, and I’ll tell you why.

Last year he ranked no worse than top-four in every important NEP category for a quarterback. Fourth in Passing NEP at 145.10, second in Passing NEP per drop back at 0.31 and first in Success Rate with a clip of 54.85 percent of his drop backs adding positively to his NEP. This all while playing on one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and an offense which was second-to-last in pass attempts.

Speaking of running the ball, DeMarco Murray and his league-leading 392 carries are in Philadelphia now. Now, the Cowboys have invested a lot in their offensive line, and I’m not going to sit here and tell you they’re going to abandon the running game. But I think it’s a fair to assume that neither Darren McFadden nor Joseph Randle are going to absorb all of those carries, as neither is the player Murray was in Dallas; it’s very likely the Cowboys pass more and rely on Romo in 2015 than in 2014.

Romo was one of the most efficient players in the league last year, as evidenced by his NEP metrics and his 3.77 touchdown-to-interception ratio -- which ranked second last year behind Aaron Rodgers and 17th among all quarterbacks since Romo first became the starter for the Cowboys in 2006.

There’s no reason to believe that efficiency wouldn’t keep up in the event the Dallas Cowboys aren’t almost dead last in pass attempts in the league -- especially when you consider Romo and the Cowboys are returning two out of the top three wide receivers in terms of Reception NEP per target (minimum of 60 targets) in Terrance Williams and Dez Bryant, who finished second and third respectively.

Tony Romo has, for whatever reason, been quietly going under the radar as one of the best and most efficient passers in the entire league. Enter his first healthy offseason in years, his already great efficiency and an expected increase in volume, and Romo could very well be in for one of the best seasons of his career.