4 Reasons the New England Patriots Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

An Improved Rush Defense

The Seahawks finished 2014 with the best rushing offense our database has ever seen. Russell Wilson ended the year as the top-ranked quarterback in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), and his 60.50 total was the second best one we've seen since 2000 (Michael Vick's 2004 was better). Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch's 27.34 Rushing NEP was better than any other running back, and the best total he's accumulated in his career.

The Patriots finished the 2014 season ranked 17th within our schedule-adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP metric. This looks like the matchup to exploit for Seattle, and it's one they'll try to exploit. But it's not as bad for New England as it looks. Over the second half of the season, the rush defense jumped 11 spots in the rankings, playing like a top-10 unit during the team's final stretch.

Stopping Seattle's ground attack is key for the Patriots on Sunday, and they may be able to do it better than most believe.