5 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions About the Second Half of the NFL Season

Julius Thomas Won't Finish as a Top-5 Tight End

By Matt Goodwin

I know what you're thinking - how can someone with nine touchdowns already through seven games finish outside the top 5 at tight end this season? Before you have flashbacks to the scene in Old School where Frank the Tank had a tranquilizer dart in his neck and kept saying "you're crazy", hear me out.

The first reason is a lack of volume. In spite of the fifth ranked Reception NEP of 42.55 on the season, Thomas currently has 30 receptions on 42 targets, with 9 of those catches being touchdowns. His peer group - notably Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, and Greg Olsen - all have at least 20 targets more than Thomas at this point in the season. That's significant, and the disparity figures to grow.

The second reason is that Thomas is, obviously, touchdown dependent. Consider Thomas the Vernon Davis of 2014. The Broncos tight end wasn't heavily targeted in 2013, and when the touchdowns go away, what you get are the last two weeks of stat lines: 4 catches for 27 yards and 2 catches for 23 yards. Those are pedestrian numbers that leave you with an L in fantasy football more often than not.

Lastly, the schedule is getting tougher for Denver, and you've seen what Thomas has done the past two weeks against defenses that are better at covering tight ends. Couple this with the fact that the peer group has been consistent with both volume and touchdowns (add both Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham into the mix as potential obstacles, among others), and it's obviously not very easy to keep up a top-five tight end pace.