15 Fantasy Football Transactions for Week 1

Sell Dolphins' Running Backs

With Bill Lazor coordinating the Dolphins’ offense in 2014, there was hope for Lamar Miller to finally break out. But with Knowshon Moreno shedding some weight and performing well in the preseason, the Dolphins’ running game has kind of become a fantasy football mess.

Moreno was fantastic last year with Peyton Manning leading the way, but that’s precisely the issue – Peyton Manning was his quarterback. Moving to a Ryan Tannehill-led offense means he won’t be seeing the same type of soft defenses he did in Denver, which results in less efficiency.

The last time a high-volume Dolphins running back had a Rushing NEP greater than zero was in 2011 with Reggie Bush. And so far in his career, our metrics peg Lamar Miller as one of the least-effective runners in the league. Miami’s offensive line has had issues of their own, which is just another reason to not be optimistic about the runners in 2014.

The upside lies in the fact that Lazor and the Dolphins want to run a fast-paced, Chip Kelly-style offense. If they run more plays, that means more volume for both relevant running backs in Miami. The problem is that we can’t – and shouldn’t – assume that Miami will all of a sudden become Philadelphia offensively (Miami ranked 20th last season on offense according to our metrics, while Philly was 5th), and we’re still unsure how carries will be split. It’s not worth your time right now to try and sort it out.