2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 15
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 1.57 | 6-6-2001 | 59.4% | 25 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 2.87 | 6-7 | 5.1% | 16 | 7 | -2 |
| 10 | Houston Texans | 3.33 | 9-4 | 98.8% | 13 | 9 | +1 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 4.15 | 8-5 | 99.2% | 7 | 13 | +1 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.95 | 7-5-1 | 62.5% | 6 | 14 | -2 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 5.36 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 19 | 2 | +1 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 6.66 | 9-4 | 99.5% | 4 | 18 | -2 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.32 | 11-2 | 100.0% | 1 | 29 | +2 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 8.12 | 10-3 | 99.8% | 5 | 11 | -1 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 8.53 | 9-4 | 99.9% | 14 | 1 | +2 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | 9.04 | 11-2 | 100.0% | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 9.48 | 11-2 | 100.0% | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Baltimore is a fascinating team and one in a unique position, as the Ravens are the only team in the top 10 in our ratings with a below-average offense.
This is a testament to how good their defense has been, for sure, but also one that forces us to ask whether or not the team has a quarterback controversy on its hands.
Joe Flacco will reportedly be active in Week 15 after missing four starts, but it is not clear whether or not he will start over Lamar Jackson. The rookie has led the Ravens to three wins and only lost narrowly to Kansas City on Sunday, but the numbers suggest the Baltimore offense has actually been better with Flacco at the helm. Baltimore was 11th in opponent-adjusted Offensive NEP before Flacco got hurt but now ranks 19th.
| Name | Pass NEP | Pass NEP/P | Pass Success Rate | Rush Attempts | Rush NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 40.6 | 0.10 | 44.8% | 19.0 | 7.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | -2.6 | -0.02 | 45.5% | 95.0 | 15.7 |
To his credit, Jackson has actually been the more efficient passer as measured by Success Rate, but has been worse at avoiding the big negative plays; Jackson has 3.0% interception rate and 9.0% sack rate, compared to marks of 1.6% and 4.1%, respectively for Flacco. These big plays more than make up for Flacco's lack of rushing value.
If we look at the offense has a whole, we see a similar trend. The Ravens have moved the ball more consistently with Jackson by a pretty considerable margin, thanks in large part to the fact that they have run the ball a lot better. He himself has played a role here, as he owns a 53.1% Rushing Success Rate.
Still, the unit has been more productive overall with Flacco, due to Jackson's aforementioned negative plays. Turnovers tend to be prone to randomness, but it is also to be expected for a rookie to struggle with them.
| Team | Pass NEP/P | Pass Success Rate | Rush NEP/P | Rush Success Rate | Off NEP/P | Off Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Flacco starting | 0.12 | 45.0% | 0.00 | 44.49% | 0.08 | 44.97% |
| With Jackson starting | -0.04 | 45.2% | 0.12 | 52.69% | 0.04 | 49.04% |
| Difference | 0.16 | -0.2% | -0.12 | -8.20% | 0.04 | -4.1% |
Baltimore's defense has shown it can help the team win regardless of who is under center, but the direction the Ravens choose to go here will be one of the more interesting storylines of the season's final month.
