5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Passing Offense
The clear main attraction of this game is on the Panthers' side of things because the Bucs' defense has been so bad. But the Panthers' defense has had its struggles this year, too, and that's dangerous with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming to town.
Overall, the Panthers rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, meaning they're roughly a league-average unit. What makes that disappointing is that they've managed to generate turnovers, ranking sixth in the league in interception rate. Normally, that'll do wonders for a model that revolves around expected points. But the Panthers still grade out poorly.
Fitzpatrick will certainly throw his fair share of interceptions, which means that you could take a run at the Panthers' defense and special teams and pair them with McCaffrey if you want. But the rest of Fitzpatrick's game has been so solid this year.
We know how good Patrick Mahomes has been. He's the clear-cut front-runner for MVP for good reason. But Fitzpatrick has actually added more Passing NEP per drop back (0.45) than Mahomes (0.44) for the full season. Fitzpatrick and Mahomes are the only quarterbacks above 0.40 in that stat, and only six passers are above 0.25. Fitzpatrick has been among the best quarterbacks in football this year.
Does that mean that Fitzpatrick is as good as Mahomes? Absolutely not. But it does show how good the talent around Fitzpatrick is, and that matters a ton for fantasy.
In the three games that Fitzpatrick has started and finished this year, he has had 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns each time. Two of those games came against teams ranked in the top 10 against the pass, based on numberFire's metrics, meaning he should be able to handle this Carolina secondary. At $7,100, Fitzpatrick is firmly on the board for both cash games and tournaments.
As with Newton, though, we have to decide with whom we want to stack him. There are a couple of good options here, too.
Because Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston seem to have different tendencies as passers, it makes sense to look at which players Fitzpatrick, specifically, has targeted most often this year. Here are those numbers with Fitzpatrick at quarterback.
| With Fitzpatrick | FanDuel Price | Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | $7,900 | 25.7% | 35.7% | 8.7% |
| DeSean Jackson | $6,600 | 15.3% | 19.0% | 4.3% |
| O.J. Howard | $6,000 | 12.5% | 19.0% | 8.7% |
| Chris Godwin | $5,900 | 16.7% | 19.0% | 30.4% |
| Adam Humphries | $5,200 | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
It was clear that Fitzpatrick wanted to get Mike Evans the ball. Evans topped 130 yards in 2 of Fitzpatrick's first 3 starts, and he scored a touchdown in all 3. Fitzpatrick threw just 15 times last week, but Evans had 3 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown in that time.
Evans missed practice Wednesday but was back out there on Thursday, meaning he should be good to go for this weekend. If you can afford him, there's plenty to like.
The more interesting names up there may be DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin. Jackson balled out with Fitzpatrick, but Godwin's role has been on the rise recently.
The Buccaneers have been rotating bodies at receiver all year long, capping the snap counts of both Jackson and Godwin. Things have shifted since the Week 5 bye, though, making it look like Godwin's earning additional looks.
| Weekly Snap Rate | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 56.1% | 69.5% | 71.6% |
| DeSean Jackson | 51.5% | 45.3% | 52.3% |
Godwin's 71.6% snap rate last week was his highest mark of the entire season. That matters quite a bit.
Godwin was getting high-leverage looks from Fitzpatrick earlier in the year -- especially in the red zone -- and now he's on the field more often than he was before. He's also a good salary-saver at $5,900. Although Jackson is still absolutely on the tournament radar because of his big-play upside, now may be the best time all season to start buying shares of Godwin.
