2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.61 | 3-4 | 13.5% | 7 | 31 | +2 |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.17 | 3-4 | 11.4% | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | -2 | 2-5-1 | 2.4% | 30 | 1 | -4 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | -0.12 | 5-2 | 66.2% | 22 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 | Houston Texans | 0.39 | 5-3 | 75.2% | 14 | 21 | +2 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.55 | 3-4 | 16.2% | 25 | 4 | -2 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.87 | 5-3 | 56.6% | 16 | 17 | -2 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | 0.99 | 3-3-1 | 29.0% | 15 | 19 | +2 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.24 | 3-5 | 26.8% | 9 | 22 | +4 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.54 | 4-4 | 44.5% | 19 | 15 | -1 |
Few teams are hotter than the Houston Texans, who have shaken off their 0-3 start to reel off a five-game winning streak.
While there has certainly been some improvement in terms of process, a huge turnaround in turnover differential has probably been the biggest in the reversal of fortune.
| Period | Avg. Margin of Victory | Turnover Margin per Game | Yards per Play Margin | Success Rate Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1 - 3 | -5 | -0.7 | 0.5 | -0.3% |
| Weeks 4 - 8 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0% |
As you can see in the chart, Houston’s average gain and success rate (the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP) during its winning streak are only slightly better than those of their winless start to the season. The Texans had one game with a positive success rate margin in their first three games, but have actually had just two since Week 4.
Their turnover margin improved by much more and has taken the Texans’ scoring margin with it. Turnovers tend to be wildly inconsistent and prone to random variation, especially in small samples. This all suggests that Houston is a roughly average team that got some bad breaks early in the season but had the bounces go there way over the past month. Their ranking of 18th in nERD also reflects this.
This is not to suggest Houston has not made any improvements; Deshaun Watson has improved his passing success rate from 45.7% to 49.7%, while its success rate against the pass has improved from 51.0% to 44.2%.
This has mostly been negated by a nearly 10% drop in rushing efficiency, as Houston has actually been less efficient overall on offense despite Watson’s improvements. Some of this seems to be a matter of game script, with defenses expecting a run late in games as Houston tries to run out the clock; during its winning streak, its rushing success rate is a healthy 50.0% in the first half but a measly 22.9% after halftime.
Still, we should not expect Houston to keep winning the turnover battle by 1 each game, which would in turn make it difficult for them to keep outscoring opponents by nine points.
