5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8
Indianapolis Colts' Passing Offense
Whenever an offense gets healthier in-season -- the exact opposite of what you expect in a sport like this -- you want to buy shares. That should lead you to the Green Bay Packers this week, and the same line of thought applies to the Indianapolis Colts.
It's not just that the Colts are getting healthier; they're also getting high-impact pieces back.
Two weeks ago, it was left tackle Anthony Castonzo and running back Marlon Mack returning. Last week, T.Y. Hilton got back in the mix. This week, it looks like it may be Jack Doyle's time to get cooking.
Colts TE Jack Doyle, out since Week 3 with a hip injury, will practice Wednesday and Frank Reich didn't rule him out from playing at Oakland this weekend.
— Mike Wells (@MikeWellsNFL) October 24, 2018
Although this would certainly put a lid on enthusiasm for Eric Ebron, it's yet another reason we should be all-in on Andrew Luck.
Luck, himself, seems to be trending up in the health department, as well. At the start of the year, Luck seemed hesitant to throw the ball downfield. The Colts even had Jacoby Brissett come on to attempt a Hail Mary at the end of their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. But ever since that game, Luck has been flashing more aggressiveness. His "deep rate" is the percentage of passes that travel at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Luck in 2018 | Deep Rate | Deep Completion Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| First 3 Games | 10.5% | 38.6% |
| Past 4 Games | 18.7% | 45.7% |
Luck's deep aggressiveness and efficiency have both increased while Hilton has been either limited or out in all four games (he played just half the snaps in Week 7). Our concerns around Luck's shoulder should be a thing of the past.
All of this is converging just in time for a delicious matchup with the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders come off their bye week ranked 31st against the pass. The bye may have helped, but there are a lot of issues to address here.
The biggest one -- not shockingly -- is the pass rush. The Raiders enter Week 8 ranked 31st in sack rate, besting only the New England Patriots. On the other side, the Colts have the second-best sack rate offensively despite playing without Castonzo for the first five games of the year. We can brush off those old concerns around the offensive line, as well.
Luck is $8,300 on FanDuel, so the buy-low window from a salary perspective is firmly shut. But it's possible that people haven't caught on to the improving health and Luck's recent performance. As such, now's as good of a time as any to get him rolling in your lineups.
From a stacking perspective, the clear top option is Hilton at $7,400.
At first glance, last week appeared to be a poor return for Hilton. As mentioned, he played just half the snaps and finished the game with four targets. There were a couple of factors helping keep him in check, though.
The first is that the game was a blowout when the Colts didn't need to throw much at all. Luck attempted just 23 passes and gave way to Brissett for the final drive, so nobody got a ton of volume.
The second was that when Hilton was on the field, he was often paired with cornerback Tre'Davious White, who is among the best in the game. He's not going to face nearly as stiff of a test this week.
The Raiders have allowed 4 different receivers to go for at least 87 yards, and all of those guys did so on fewer than 10 targets. Hilton had at least 10 targets in each of his three games prior to the injury.
Additionally, Hilton has been developing some extra touchdown upside recently. He scored a couple of bunny touchdowns last week, and in the 4 games where he has played at least half the snaps, Hilton has 27.6% of the team's red-zone targets. Four of those targets in close came before Doyle got hurt, too, meaning we shouldn't expect this role to go away.
Hilton has always been a better player on turf, but while playing on grass in Week 2, he turned 11 targets into 83 yards and a touchdown. Given the matchup and Hilton's palatable price tag, that likely shouldn't be enough to push us away.
If Doyle does end up sitting, then we'd clearly still be in on Ebron. He had 7 of 23 targets in Hilton's return last week and has had a healthy role both down the field and in the red zone. But in the two games that Doyle has played this year, Ebron netted a combined nine targets. A good chunk of those were in the end zone, so he could still score if Doyle plays, but it would certainly put his floor and his ceiling both a little lower than you'd like for $6,400.
