5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Home-Favorite Keenan Allen Is a Tournament Winner

Keenan Allen has been a disappointment for those who drafted him to be an elite wide receiver. Through four weeks, he ranks as a middling WR3, behind teammate Mike Williams, However, if he's going to turn this season around, it starts against the Oakland Raiders. They are rated as numberFire's ninth-worst passing defense and have given up the sixth-most points to opposing receivers.

Most importantly, the Chargers are a home favorite, a spot Allen usually excels in.

In games where the Chargers are favored, Allen sees an increase in every statistical category including targets, where he averages an additional two per game. When narrowing down to 2017 and 2018 home games (at StubHub Center, a soccer stadium much smaller than NFL stadium), the contrast is even more stark. Allen averages 19.4 points at home, as a favorite, versus 9.9 in all other scenarios over that span. Allen may not finish the season with as many fantasy points as last year, but his matchup with Oakland will be a step in the right direction.