Week 2 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 52.5
Steelers Implied Team Total: 28.75
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 23.75
With easily the highest over/under of the week, expect this game to have high ownership. It's possible, however, that Ben Roethlisberger's ugly five-turnover performance in Week 1 cools ownership slightly. Regardless, the Kansas City Chiefs defense hasn't stopped anyone since last season and the Pittsburgh Steelers defense hasn't looked the same since losing Ryan Shazier to injury last year. With offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball, a shootout does seem likely.
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $7,000
As soon as we found out Le'Veon Bell would miss Week 1, James Conner became the easiest DFS play of the week. Not only did he exceed expectations, but he pounded his way to 36 touches and the fourth-most fantasy points on the week. Not bad for his first NFL start. FanDuel has since risen his price, but with 30-plus touch upside, he's still too cheap. It's really that simple. While his ownership should still be above 50%, the hope here is that the $7000 price tag forces some owners to pivot off such a chalky play. At home against this same Chiefs defense last week, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 292 yards from scrimmage. There is no reason to move away from Conner in this pristine home matchup.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $7,600
There are so many viable stacks and options in play for this game, and we'll get to the Chiefs in a second. But based on price tag and last week's down performance, it's possible that Big Ben goes overlooked. He was absolutely dreadful against the Cleveland Browns and fans won't soon forget that. But we know he's always struggled on the road, specifically at Cleveland in 1PM EST games, and the weather was particularly tough to play in. All of that context helps paint the picture of why Roethlisberger performed so poorly in Cleveland.
Now, he gets a clean slate at home. Since 2011, Big Ben averages 25.5 fantasy points per game at home versus 18.4 points per game on the road. Just as important, his splits with and without Le'Veon are minimal. The Chiefs allowed the QB3 performance to Philip Rivers last week, and also graded out as third-worst per numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points model. While everyone clamors to put Patrick Mahomes in their lineups, Big Ben has more upside at home with the better matchup.
Others to Consider
I can't imagine you need me to tell you that Tyreek Hill ($8,100) is a great play this week. There aren't many cornerbacks in the world that can keep up with his speed, and he seems to have already developed a strong rapport with Mahomes. The Chargers have a much stronger secondary than the Steelers do and showed no ability to contain him. Also, Pittsburgh's top corner Joe Haden has a mild hamstring pull and should be considered no better than questionable to even suit up. Hill is an elite GPP option, though one we'd expect to have high ownership.
Patrick Mahomes' ($7,500) cannon arm and rushing ability make him a tournament option every week, though I'm worried everyone will want to roster him after what he did to the Chargers' elite pass defense in Week 1. That's why Travis Kelce ($6,800) is my favorite play on the Chiefs' side of the ball. Kelce flopped last week, but he was also shut down by the Chargers in both matchups last season, so he wasn't someone we were on. Much more important than his poor stat line is the fact that he still saw six targets, second on the team to Tyreek Hill. He's likely to go under-owned coming off the down performance and makes for a great buy-low target in re-draft leagues as well.
You know you've got a shootout on your hands when you've gotten this far without mentioning Antonio Brown ($8,900) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,200). Both are firmly in play and can even go together in the same lineup given the concentrated target tree in Pittsburgh. Kansas City gave up the WR9 performance to Keenan Allen in the slot last week -- great for JuJu -- and Tyrell Williams scored a touchdown while dropping another. With sharp DFS players knowing Antonio Brown has scored over seven more PPR points per game when Le'Veon sits versus when he plays, Brown's ownership should be high again, making JuJu the sneakier play here.
For those looking to punt at tight end, the deep sleeper in this game is Jesse James ($4,600). James was third on the team in receiving yards and fourth in targets last week, which is more than you can say about any tight end even close to his price range. The key here is that premier tight end-stopper Eric Berry hasn't practiced in a month with a heel injury, a concerning development for someone recovering from a torn Achilles. If Berry sits again and Vance McDonald ($4,800) is also out with a foot injury, James is a cheap touchdown-chasing option attached to a high team total.