4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 1

Wide Receiver

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This portion of the article could probably write itself this week. And, no, I'm not talking about some magical algorithm that's going to begin writing fantasy articles. Antonio Brown was already on people's radars this week. Why wouldn't he be? His 18.56 FanDuel point average in 2017 was the highest of any wide receiver. He finished second in overall points despite playing just 14 games.

He not only has that pedigree going for him, but the matchup couldn't be better. In last season's opener, he put up an insane 11-catch, 182-yard line against the Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers' opponent this week. To top it all off, his usage could be even higher as Le'Veon Bell is going to miss Week 1 because of a contract dispute.

He's not the only high-end receiver with likely high ownership. No, people will also likely flock to DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, who averaged the second-most FanDuel points per game last season--gets to face off against the New England Patriots this week in a game that has an over/under set at 51, easily the highest on the slate. We have him projected for 17.6 FanDuel points, a number which would return the highest predicted value on the slate

Pivot

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: $8,400 (at Indianapolis Colts)

If you don't want to pay up for Brown or Hopkins, or if you want to create a super-cadre of all three (it's possible), then look no further than A.J. Green this week. Green gets a juicy matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

While Green scored a touchdown in their matchup against the Colts last year, his final fantasy output (10.2 FanDuel points) likely disappointed those who chose to roster him. Owners are not likely to be disappointed again.

The Colts should be better than the shell of a team they sent onto the field in 2017, but our models still project them to struggle. We have them ranked as the worst passing defense in the league, and they'll likely take that title with aplomb. Our defensive pass efficiency rankings show them to be over 25% worse than the next closest team (the Oakland Raiders). Comparing teams in such a manner is wrought with statistical fallacies, I know, but I still say it to emphasize the point that the Colts' pass defense is expected to be really bad.

The Cincinnati Bengals went through 2018 without much of an offensive identity. The running back situation was fluid, Green didn't have a reliable WR2 on the other side of the field to take coverage away from him, and Tyler Eifert was hurt...again.

They seemed to have shored up all of those issues. Joe Mixon is the unquestioned RB1, Tyler Boyd and John Ross should offer a solid pairing opposite Green, and Eifert is healthy--at least for Week 1.

Given that foundation, Green and the Bengals should feel much more confident heading into 2018, especially in a Week 1 matchup against the Colts. He's well worth a pivot in tournaments this week, and a Cincy stack shouldn't be out of your mind either.