Which Quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
4. Josh Rosen, UCLA
Games Played: 30 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 146.3 | AY/A: 8.4 | Total QBR: 65.8
Top Statistical Comp: Joey Harrington
Now we get into the big guns. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold seem to be the two most likely candidates to go with the first overall pick. Which player should teams favor if they decide to go that route?
By a slim margin, it appears as if Rosen holds the edge. A good chunk of that stems from the fact that he has an additional half year of starting experience despite being just a few months older.
Rosen was able to secure the UCLA Bruins' starting job in his age-18 season as a true freshman. Darnold redshirted that year, capping his experience a bit. It's not necessarily a knock on Darnold's talent because USC had an NFL-caliber thrower in Cody Kessler, but those extra few starts do bolster Rosen's statistical resume.
That doesn't mean Rosen has a can't-miss profile. His efficiency marks from 2017 fall short of our thresholds, and yet they were still the best marks of his career. It leaves open the question about why the scouting reports for Rosen are glowing while the statistics are far more reserved.
Some of this could be due to UCLA's issues elsewhere. They had the 120th-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders' Defensive S&P+, and it allowed the Bruins to lose 5 of the 11 games Rosen played this year. If a quarterback is constantly in catch-up mode, his efficiency is going to suffer because the defense can plan around defending the pass.
This could offer a partial explanation. More than half (257 of 452, or 56.86%) of Rosen's pass attempts this year came while trailing. That's a fairly massive number, and we do need to account for that when looking at his full-season stats.
That said, NFL quarterbacks are going to have to play from behind plenty. So, let's look at how each quarterback performed while trailing during the 2017 season. Also listed is the percentage of the quarterback's total attempts this year that came while his team was behind so as to show which quarterbacks were put in these tough spots most often.
| While Trailing | Percentage of Passes | TDs | INTs | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 56.86% | 12 | 8 | 7.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 43.02% | 9 | 6 | 7.7 |
| Josh Allen | 38.89% | 0 | 4 | 3.3 |
| Mason Rudolph | 38.04% | 12 | 6 | 8.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 33.96% | 6 | 4 | 7.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 20.79% | 5 | 1 | 11.9 |
Nobody else was facing negative game script nearly as often as Rosen. And he measured up pretty well in those scenarios, sitting third in AY/A behind Mayfield and Rudolph. It's not going to explain all of Rosen's struggles, but it's absolutely something we should consider while evaluating him.
Rosen can take some solace in looking at what Jared Goff did this year. Goff was another quarterback who was paired with a poor defense in college and had 53.50% of his attempts come while trailing. Goff had a better AY/A than Rosen in those scenarios (8.2), and his overall numbers were also better, but the two do have plenty of similarities. Rosen's success despite poor conditions may be the best argument in favor of taking him at the top.
All of that said, Rosen's stats paint the picture of someone who is a risky pick at the top end of the draft even when you account for those conditions. The scouts love him for a reason, and we do need to factor that in, but Rosen appears to be far from a slam dunk as a prospect.
